Related papers: Statistical analysis and stochastic interest rate …
For environmental problems such as global warming future costs must be balanced against present costs. This is traditionally done using an exponential function with a constant discount rate, which reduces the present value of future costs.…
We present a thorough empirical study on real interest rates by also including risk aversion through the introduction of the market price of risk. With the view of complex systems science and its multidisciplinary approach, we use the…
The use of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process is ubiquitous in business, economics and finance to capture various price processes and evolution of economic indicators exhibiting mean-reverting properties. When structural changes happen,…
This paper develops a new stochastic volatility model for the temperature that is a natural extension of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model proposed by Benth and Benth (2007). This model allows to be more conservative regarding extreme events…
We study stochastic model reduction for evolution equations in infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces, and show the convergence to the reduced equations via abstract results of Wong-Zakai type for stochastic equations driven by a scaled…
We consider an individual or household endowed with an initial capital and an income, modeled as a deterministic process with a continuous drift rate. At first, we model the discounting rate as the price of a zero-coupon bond at zero under…
In stochastic population dynamics, stochastic wandering can produce transition to an absorbing state. In particular, under Allee effects, low densities amplify the possibility of population collapse. We investigate this in an…
The correlated stochastic volatility models constitute a natural extension of the Black and Scholes-Merton framework: here the volatility is not a constant, but a stochastic process correlated with the price log-return one. At present,…
We investigate a dividend maximization problem under stochastic interest rates with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics. This setup also takes negative rates into account. First a deterministic time is considered, where an explicit separating curve…
In this paper, we analyze the use of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model dynamical systems subjected to bounded noisy perturbations. In order to discuss the main characteristics of this new approach we consider some basic models in…
I introduce a general, Bayesian method for modelling univariate time series data assumed to be drawn from a continuous, stochastic process. The method accommodates arbitrary temporal sampling, and takes into account measurement…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic asset price model where the trend is an unobservable Ornstein Uhlenbeck process. We first review some classical results from Kalman filtering. Expectedly, the choice of the parameters is crucial to…
In this work, we propose a model to quantify the impact of the climate transition on a property in housing market. We begin by noting that property is an asset in an economy. That economy is organized in sectors, driven by its productivity…
Stochastic differential equations such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have long been used to model realworld probablistic events such as stock prices and temperature fluctuations. While statistical methods such as Maximum Likelihood…
I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I…
We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that…
We investigate the problem of pricing derivatives under a fractional stochastic volatility model. We obtain an approximate expression of the derivative price where the stochastic volatility can be composed of deterministic functions of time…
This paper examines the empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) and proposes a structural explanation based on a mean-reverting risk premium. We define a realized premium as the deviation between observed exchange rate returns…
Consider the problem of a government that wants to reduce the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio of a country. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the…
In this survey paper we discuss recent advances on short interest rate models which can be formulated in terms of a stochastic differential equation for the instantaneous interest rate (also called short rate) or a system of such equations…