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In this paper we propose a transform method to compute the prices and greeks of barrier options driven by a class of Levy processes. We derive analytical expressions for the Laplace transforms in time of the prices and sensitivities of…
One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement…
We develop an expansion approach for the pricing of European quanto options written on LIBOR rates (of a foreign currency). We derive the dynamics of the system of foreign LIBOR rates under the domestic forward measure and then consider the…
This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated L\'{e}vy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of L\'{e}vy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main…
Energy companies need efficient procedures to perform market calibration of stochastic models for commodities. If the Black framework is chosen for option pricing, the bottleneck of the market calibration is the computation of the variance…
In the context of stochastic volatility models, we study representation formulas in terms of expectations for the power series' coefficients associated to the call price-function. As in a recent paper by Antonelli and Scarlatti the…
The reliable estimation of forecast uncertainties is crucial for risk-sensitive optimal decision making. In this paper, we propose implicit generative ensemble post-processing, a novel framework for multivariate probabilistic electricity…
Our paper aims to model and forecast the electricity price by taking a completely new perspective on the data. It will be the first approach which is able to combine the insights of market structure models with extensive and modern…
In equity and foreign exchange markets the risk-neutral dynamics of the underlying asset are commonly represented by stochastic volatility models with jumps. In this paper we consider a dense subclass of such models and develop analytically…
We study historical calibration of one- and two-factor models that are known to describe relatively well the dynamics of energy underlyings such as spot and index natural gas or oil prices at different physical locations or regional power…
The paper Borovkova et al. [4] uses moment matching method to obtain closed form formulas for spread and basket call option prices under log normal models. In this note, we also use moment matching method to obtain semi-closed form formulas…
Accurately forecasting electricity price volatility is crucial for effective risk management and decision-making. Traditional forecasting models often fall short in capturing the complex, non-linear dynamics of electricity markets,…
In this work we considered several hybrid modelling approaches for forecasting energy spot prices in EPEC market. Hybridization is performed through combining a Naive model, Fourier analysis, ARMA and GARCH models, a mean-reversion and…
We present a new numerical method to price vanilla options quickly in time-changed Brownian motion models. The method is based on rational function approximations of the Black-Scholes formula. Detailed numerical results are given for a…
In this paper we compare two classical one-factor diffusion models which are used to model the term structure of interest rates. One of them is based on the Wiener-Bachelier process while the second one is based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck…
We propose a multivariate elastic net regression forecast model for German quarter-hourly electricity spot markets. While the literature is diverse on day-ahead prediction approaches, both the intraday continuous and intraday call-auction…
In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices is modeled with a normal tempered stable driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Such processes are the generalization of normal inverse Gaussian…
In this article, we provide representations of European and American exchange option prices under stochastic volatility jump-diffusion (SVJD) dynamics following models by Merton (1976), Heston (1993), and Bates (1996). A Radon-Nikodym…
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these…
Adaptive wave model for financial option pricing is proposed, as a high-complexity alternative to the standard Black--Scholes model. The new option-pricing model, representing a controlled Brownian motion, includes two wave-type approaches:…