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We prove large and moderate deviation principles for the distribution of an empirical mean conditioned by the value of the sum of discrete i.i.d. random variables. Some applications for combinatoric problems are discussed.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-11 Fabrice Gamboa , Thierry Klein , Clémentine Prieur

In this paper, we investigate the features and the performance of the Risk Parity (RP) portfolios using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) as a risk measure. The RP model is a recent strategy for asset allocation that aims at equally sharing…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-19 Çağın Ararat , Francesco Cesarone , Mustafa Çelebi Pınar , Jacopo Maria Ricci

Recent research has shown that interval estimators with good coverage properties are achievable for some functions of quantiles, even when sample sizes are not large. Motivated by this, we consider interval estimators for the ratios of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-21 Chandima N. P. G. Arachchige , Maxwell Cairns , Luke A. Prendergast

Differential privacy is a restriction on data processing algorithms that provides strong confidentiality guarantees for individual records in the data. However, research on proper statistical inference, that is, research on properly…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-07-06 Joerg Drechsler , Ira Globus-Harris , Audra McMillan , Jayshree Sarathy , Adam Smith

Walley's Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) for categorical data overcomes several fundamental problems which other approaches to uncertainty suffer from. Yet, to be useful in practice, one needs efficient ways for computing the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-16 Marcus Hutter

Robust statistics traditionally focuses on outliers, or perturbations in total variation distance. However, a dataset could be corrupted in many other ways, such as systematic measurement errors and missing covariates. We generalize the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Banghua Zhu , Jiantao Jiao , Jacob Steinhardt

A reasonable confidence interval should have a confidence coefficient no less than the given nominal level and a small expected length to reliably and accurately estimate the parameter of interest, and the bootstrap interval is considered…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-15 Weizhen Wang , Chongxiu Yu , Zhongzhan Zhang

We obtain the upper error bounds of robust estimators for mean vector, using the median-of-means (MOM) method. The method is designed to handle data with heavy tails and contamination, with only a finite second moment, which is weaker than…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Yuxuan Wang , Yiming Chen , Hanchao Wang , Lixin Zhang

A median-radius framework for assessing centrality in multivariate data using median distances is proposed. Based on the proposed framework, a scale invariant measure of radial dispersion is defined and used to establish a depth function…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Elsayed Elamir

We construct robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals (EBCIs) in a normal means problem. The intervals are centered at the usual linear empirical Bayes estimator, but use a critical value accounting for shrinkage. Parametric EBCIs that…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-22 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár , Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

We study the problem of estimating finite sample confidence intervals of the mean of a normal population under the constraint of differential privacy. We consider both the known and unknown variance cases and construct differentially…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2017-11-13 Vishesh Karwa , Salil Vadhan

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Shi-ang Qi , Neeraj Kumar , Mahtab Farrokh , Weijie Sun , Li-Hao Kuan , Rajesh Ranganath , Ricardo Henao , Russell Greiner

A confidence distribution is a complete tool for making frequentist inference for a parameter of interest $\psi$ based on an assumed parametric model. Indeed, it allows to reach point estimates, to assess their precision, to set up tests…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-20 Elena Bortolato , Laura Ventura

The maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is a kernel-based nonparametric statistic for two-sample testing, whose inferential accuracy depends critically on variance characterization. Existing work provides various finite-sample estimators of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Shijie Zhong , Yikun Yang , Da Gong , Jiangfeng Fu

We revisit empirical Bayes discrimination detection, focusing on uncertainty arising from both partial identification and sampling variability. While prior work has mostly focused on partial identification, we find that some empirical…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-19 Jiaying Gu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Azeem M. Shaikh

Estimating the proportion of signals hidden in a large amount of noise variables is of interest in many scientific inquires. In this paper, we consider realistic but theoretically challenging settings with arbitrary covariance dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-12 X. Jessie Jeng

Confidence sequences are confidence intervals that can be sequentially tracked, and are valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. This paper presents confidence sequences for a univariate mean of an unknown distribution with a known…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-09 Hongjian Wang , Aaditya Ramdas

We study confidence intervals based on hard-thresholding, soft-thresholding, and adaptive soft-thresholding in a linear regression model where the number of regressors $k$ may depend on and diverge with sample size $n$. In addition to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-08 Ulrike Schneider

Popular measures of meta-analysis heterogeneity, such as $I^2$, cannot be considered measures of population heterogeneity since they are dependant on samples sizes within studies. The coefficient of variation (CV) recently introduced and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-06 Maxwell Cairns , Luke Prendergast

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren