Related papers: Multiscale Influenza Forecasting
Diffusion models have been widely adopted in image generation, producing higher-quality and more diverse samples than generative adversarial networks (GANs). We introduce a latent diffusion model (LDM) for precipitation nowcasting -…
Public debates driven by incomplete scientific data where nobody can claim absolute certainty, due to current state of scientific knowledge, are studied. The cases of evolution theory, global warming and H1N1 pandemic influenza are…
We present a case study of solar flare forecasting by means of metadata feature time series, by treating it as a prominent class-imbalance and temporally coherent problem. Taking full advantage of pre-flare time series in solar active…
Parameter inference and state estimation in stochastic and partially observed biological systems remain major problems in mathematical biology. In this work, we introduce a two-dimensional lattice graph model for the spread of infectious…
Dengue is an infectious disease which poses significant socioeconomic and disease burden in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. This work aims to provide additional insight into the association between dengue and climate in…
Various complex water management decisions are made in snow-dominant watersheds with the knowledge of Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE) -- a key measure widely used to estimate the water content of a snowpack. However, forecasting SWE is…
Confirmed cases during the early stage of the 2009 H1N1 pdm in various countries showed an age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most…
Pandemic influenza has great potential to cause large and rapid increases in deaths and serious illness. The objective of this paper is to develop an agent-based model to simulate the spread of pandemic influenza (novel H1N1) in Egypt. The…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
In order for epidemiological forecasts to be useful for decision-makers the forecasts need to be properly validated and evaluated. Although several metrics fore evaluation have been proposed and used none of them account for the potential…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
Mathematical models of epidemic dynamics offer significant insight into predicting and controlling infectious diseases. The dynamics of a disease model generally follow a susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) model, with some standard…
Dengue remains one of Brazil's major epidemiological challenges, marked by strong intra-urban inequalities and the influence of climatic and socio-environmental factors. This study analyzed confirmed dengue cases in Recife from 2015 to 2024…
Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to…
Each year, seasonal influenza epidemics cause hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide and put high loads on health care systems. A main concern for resource planning is the risk of exceptionally severe epidemics. Taking advantage of…
Accurate air quality forecasting is crucial for protecting public health and guiding environmental policy, yet it remains challenging due to nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics, wind-driven transport, and distribution shifts across regions.…
Forecasting compound floods presents a significant challenge due to the intricate interplay of meteorological, hydrological, and oceanographic factors. Analyzing compound floods has become more critical as the global climate increases flood…
We provide a brief technical description of an online platform for disease monitoring, titled as the Flu Detector (fludetector.cs.ucl.ac.uk). Flu Detector, in its current version (v.0.5), uses either Twitter or Google search data in…
The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes,…
Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Significant efforts have been made to integrate advanced network architectures and training strategies that enhance the capture of temporal…