Related papers: Partial Uncertainty and Applications to Risk-Avers…
Spectral risk objectives - also called $L$-risks - allow for learning systems to interpolate between optimizing average-case performance (as in empirical risk minimization) and worst-case performance on a task. We develop stochastic…
New versions of the set-valued average value at risk for multivariate risks are introduced by generalizing the well-known certainty equivalent representation to the set-valued case. The first "regulator" version is independent from any…
A novel confidence interval estimator is proposed for the risk difference in noninferiority binomial trials. The confidence interval is consistent with an exact unconditional test that preserves the type-I error, and has improved power,…
This text is a survey on cross-validation. We define all classical cross-validation procedures, and we study their properties for two different goals: estimating the risk of a given estimator, and selecting the best estimator among a given…
We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…
We reexamine the classical linear regression model when the model is subject to two types of uncertainty: (i) some of covariates are either missing or completely inaccessible, and (ii) the variance of the measurement error is undetermined…
We present a method of hedging Conditional Value at Risk of a position in stock using put options. The result leads to a linear programming problem that can be solved to optimise risk hedging.
The problem of testing for the parametric form of the conditional variance is considered in a fully nonparametric regression model. A test statistic based on a weighted $L_2$-distance between the empirical characteristic functions of…
In nonparametric statistics, rate-optimal estimators typically balance bias and stochastic error. The recent work on overparametrization raises the question whether rate-optimal estimators exist that do not obey this trade-off. In this work…
Maximum likelihood estimation is a common method of estimating the parameters of the probability distribution from a given sample. This paper aims to introduce the maximum likelihood estimation in the framework of sublinear expectation. We…
In this paper, we investigate risk minimization problem of derivatives based on non-tradable underlyings by means of dynamic g-expectations which are slight different from conditional g-expectations. In this framework, inspired by [1] and…
This paper introduces a variational approximation framework using direct optimization of what is known as the {\it scale invariant Alpha-Beta divergence} (sAB divergence). This new objective encompasses most variational objectives that use…
We axiomatically introduce risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures defined on multidimensional risks. This class consists of those conditional systemic risk measures which can be decomposed into a state-wise conditional…
In this work, we extend some quantities introduced in "Optimization of conditional value-at-risk" of R.T Rockafellar and S. Uryasev to the case where the proximity between real numbers is measured by using a Bregman divergence. This leads…
Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…
We consider the conditional randomization test as a way to account for covariate imbalance in randomized experiments. The test accounts for covariate imbalance by comparing the observed test statistic to the null distribution of the test…
Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…
The ability to make optimal decisions under uncertainty remains important across a variety of disciplines from portfolio management to power engineering. This generally implies applying some safety margins on uncertain parameters that may…
A derivative is a financial security whose value is a function of underlying traded assets and market outcomes. Pricing a financial derivative involves setting up a market model, finding a martingale (``fair game") probability measure for…
Auctions in which agents' payoffs are random variables have received increased attention in recent years. In particular, recent work in algorithmic mechanism design has produced mechanisms employing internal randomization, partly in…