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The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…
We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure that is being used extensively in various domains. We develop a new formula for the gradient of the CVaR in the form of a conditional expectation. Based on this formula, we…
In this work we consider optimal stopping problems with conditional convex risk measures called optimised certainty equivalents. Without assuming any kind of time-consistency for the underlying family of risk measures, we derive a novel…
The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…
Conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) is one of the most important measures of systemic risk. It is defined as the high quantile conditional on a related variable being extreme, widely used in the field of quantitative risk management. In this…
Quantification of risk positions under model uncertainty is of crucial importance from both viewpoints of external regulation and internal management. The concept of model uncertainty, sometimes also referred to as model ambiguity. Although…
We address imbalanced classification, the problem in which a label may have low marginal probability relative to other labels, by weighting losses according to the correct class. First, we examine the convergence rates of the expected…
In this paper we introduce a sublinear conditional expectation with respect to a family of possibly nondominated probability measures on a progressively enlarged filtration. In this way, we extend the classic reduced-form setting for credit…
In optimization problems, the quality of a candidate solution can be characterized by the optimality gap. For most stochastic optimization problems, this gap must be statistically estimated. We show that for risk-averse problems, standard…
Contextual stochastic optimization is an advanced methodology to model uncertainty in the presence of contextual information during decision planning processes. Although classical methodologies focus on minimizing the expectation of a…
The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a tail expectation. Range Value at Risk (RVaR) is a natural…
Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks…
We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…
Based on law of large numbers and central limit theorem under nonlinear expectation, we introduce a new method of using G-normal distribution to measure financial risks. Applying max-mean estimators and small windows method, we establish…
Conditional risk minimization arises in high-stakes decisions where risk must be assessed in light of side information, such as stressed economic conditions, specific customer profiles, or other contextual covariates. Constructing reliable…
We consider the portfolio optimization with risk measured by conditional value-at-risk, based on the stress event of chosen asset being equal to the opposite of its value-at-risk level, under the normality assumption. Solvability conditions…
Distributional reinforcement learning (RL) -- in which agents learn about all the possible long-term consequences of their actions, and not just the expected value -- is of great recent interest. One of the most important affordances of a…
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…
In this paper we introduce a sublinear conditional operator with respect to a family of possibly nondominated probability measures in presence of multiple ordered default times. In this way we generalize the results of [5], where a…