Related papers: MMD-Bayes: Robust Bayesian Estimation via Maximum …
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…
Mean embeddings provide an extremely flexible and powerful tool in machine learning and statistics to represent probability distributions and define a semi-metric (MMD, maximum mean discrepancy; also called N-distance or energy distance),…
In recent years, Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems found in science, engineering and machine learning has gained significant attention. This paper examines the robustness of the Bayesian approach by analyzing the stability…
Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…
Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating statistics to infer parameters of intractable likelihood models.…
Large-scale optimization problems are ubiquitous in the physical sciences; yet, high-fidelity models can often be complex and computationally prohibitive for optimization. A practical alternative is to use a low-fidelity model to facilitate…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is one of the most popular "likelihood-free" methods. These methods have been applied in a wide range of fields by providing solutions to intractable likelihood problems in which exact Bayesian…
The stationary distribution of allele frequencies under a variety of Wright--Fisher $k$-allele models with selection and parent independent mutation is well studied. However, the statistical properties of maximum likelihood estimates of…
Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…
Maximum pseudolikelihood (MPL) estimators are useful alternatives to maximum likelihood (ML) estimators when likelihood functions are more difficult to manipulate than their marginal and conditional components. Furthermore, MPL estimators…
Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…
In Bayesian inference, the posterior distributions are difficult to obtain analytically for complex models such as neural networks. Variational inference usually uses a parametric distribution for approximation, from which we can easily…
The Bayesian lasso is well-known as a Bayesian alternative for Lasso. Although the advantage of the Bayesian lasso is capable of full probabilistic uncertain quantification for parameters, the corresponding posterior distribution can be…
The maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is a kernel-based nonparametric statistic for two-sample testing, whose inferential accuracy depends critically on variance characterization. Existing work provides various finite-sample estimators of the…
Discrete Markov random fields are undirected graphical models that capture complex conditional dependencies between discrete variables. Conducting exact posterior inference in these models is often computationally challenging because…
In the setting of nonparametric multivariate regression with unknown error variance, we study asymptotic properties of a Bayesian method for estimating a regression function f and its mixed partial derivatives. We use a random series of…
We discuss an approach for deriving robust posterior distributions from $M$-estimating functions using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods. In particular, we use $M$-estimating functions to construct suitable summary statistics…
We propose a new marginal data density estimator (MDDE) that uses the variational Bayes posterior density as a weighting density of the reciprocal importance sampling (RIS) MDDE. This computationally convenient estimator is based on…