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This paper provides full classification of dynamics for continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) on the non-negative integers with polynomial transition rate functions. Such stochastic processes are abundant in applications, in particular in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-01 Chuang Xu , Mads Christian Hansen , Carsten Wiuf

Continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers can be used for modeling biological systems, population dynamics, and queueing models. Qualitative behaviors of birth-and-death models, typical examples of such one-dimensional…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-24 Minjun Kim , Seokhwan Moon , Jinsu Kim

Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose…

Applications · Statistics 2009-10-12 Asger Hobolth , Eric A. Stone

In this paper we develop the elements of the theory of algorithmic randomness in continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs). Our main contribution is a rigorous, useful notion of what it means for an individual trajectory of a CTMC to be random.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Xiang Huang , Jack H. Lutz , Neil Lutz , Andrei N. Migunov

Stochastic reaction networks (SRNs) provide models of many real-world networks. Examples include networks in epidemiology, pharmacology, genetics, ecology, chemistry, and social sciences. Here, we model stochastic reaction networks by…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-26 Carsten Wiuf , Chuang Xu

Computing the stationary distributions of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) involves solving a set of linear equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or too large, and the equations cannot be solved…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-25 Juan Kuntz , Philipp Thomas , Guy-Bart Stan , Mauricio Barahona

Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…

Continuous-time Markov chains are used to model stochastic systems where transitions can occur at irregular times, e.g., birth-death processes, chemical reaction networks, population dynamics, and gene regulatory networks. We develop a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Majerle Reeves , Harish S. Bhat

Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Filippo Monti , Xiang Ji , Marc A. Suchard

Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-22 Thomas Krak , Jasper De Bock , Arno Siebes

This paper is motivated by examples from stochastic reaction network theory. The $Q$-matrix of a stochastic reaction network can be derived from the reaction graph, an edge-labelled directed graph encoding the jump vectors of an associated…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-24 Chuang Xu , Mads Christian Hansen , Carsten Wiuf

More than ever, today we are left with the abundance of molecular data outpaced by the advancements of the phylogenomic methods. Especially in the case of presence of many genes over a set of species under the phylogeny question, more…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-29 Ali Amiryousefi

Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…

Every probability distribution can be approximated up to a given precision by a phase-type distribution, i.e. a distribution encoded by a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC). However, an excessive number of states in the corresponding CTMC…

Performance · Computer Science 2014-07-01 Ľuboš Korenčiak , Jan Krčál , Vojtěch Řehák

Graph dynamical systems (GDS) model dynamic processes on a (static) graph. Stochastic GDS has been used for network-based epidemics models such as the contact process and the reversible contact process. In this paper, we consider stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-16 Seyyed A. Fatemi , June Zhang

A central task in many applications is reasoning about processes that change in a continuous time. The mathematical framework of Continuous Time Markov Processes provides the basic foundations for modeling such systems. Recently, Nodelman…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Tal El-Hay , Nir Friedman , Daphne Koller , Raz Kupferman

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) have been used extensively to model reliability of storage systems. While the exponentially distributed sojourn time of Markov models is widely known to be unrealistic (and it is necessary to consider…

Performance · Computer Science 2015-03-30 Prasenjit Karmakar , K. Gopinath

A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Paul Vanetti , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

In many dynamical systems in nature, the law of the dynamics changes along with the temporal evolution of the system. These changes are often associated with the occurrence of certain events. The timing of occurrence of these events…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-12 S. Gallo , G. Iacobelli , G. Ost , D. Y. Takahashi
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