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Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This paper develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzing quasi-experimental settings in the social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Ashesh Rambachan , Jonathan Roth

Systems with both quantitative and qualitative responses are widely encountered in many applications. Design of experiment methods are needed when experiments are conducted to study such systems. Classic experimental design methods are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-24 Lulu Kang , Xinwei Deng , Ran Jin

Bayesian adaptive experimental design is a form of active learning, which chooses samples to maximize the information they give about uncertain parameters. Prior work has shown that other forms of active learning can suffer from active…

A general Bayesian framework for model selection on random network models regarding their features is considered. The goal is to develop a principle Bayesian model selection approach to compare different fittable, not necessarily nested,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-30 Papamichalis Marios

In this paper, we take a statistical decision-theoretic viewpoint on social choice, putting a focus on the decision to be made on behalf of a system of agents. In our framework, we are given a statistical ranking model, a decision space,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-03-15 Hossein Azari Soufiani , David C. Parkes , Lirong Xia

We introduce a framework for Bayesian experimental design (BED) with implicit models, where the data-generating distribution is intractable but sampling from it is still possible. In order to find optimal experimental designs for such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-11 Steven Kleinegesse , Michael U. Gutmann

Optimal design is a critical yet challenging task within many applications. This challenge arises from the need for extensive trial and error, often done through simulations or running field experiments. Fortunately, sequential optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Xubo Yue , Raed Al Kontar , Albert S. Berahas , Yang Liu , Blake N. Johnson

Standard regression approaches assume that some finite number of the response distribution characteristics, such as location and scale, change as a (parametric or nonparametric) function of predictors. However, it is not always appropriate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Fernand A. Quintana , Peter Mueller , Alejandro Jara , Steven N. MacEachern

Many critical decisions, such as personalized medical diagnoses and product pricing, are made based on insights gained from designing, observing, and analyzing a series of experiments. This highlights the crucial role of experimental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-03 Daolang Huang , Yujia Guo , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

The Design of Experiments (DOEs) is a fundamental scientific methodology that provides researchers with systematic principles and techniques to enhance the validity, reliability, and efficiency of experimental outcomes. In this study, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Miao Huang , Hongqiao Wang , Kunyu Wu

We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for model and forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. We use a loss function to score the performance of different models…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-29 Dawid Bernaciak , Jim E. Griffin

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Bayesian experimental design (BED) provides a principled framework for optimizing data collection by choosing experiments that are maximally informative about unknown parameters. However, existing methods cannot deal with the joint…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Sara Pérez-Vieites , Sahel Iqbal , Simo Särkkä , Dominik Baumann

Optimal design of experiments for Bayesian inverse problems has recently gained wide popularity and attracted much attention, especially in the computational science and Bayesian inversion communities. An optimal design maximizes a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Ahmed Attia , Sven Leyffer , Todd Munson

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Hrushikesh Loya , Pranav Poduval , Deepak Anand , Neeraj Kumar , Amit Sethi

An initial screening experiment may lead to ambiguous conclusions regarding the factors which are active in explaining the variation of an outcome variable: thus adding follow-up runs becomes necessary. We propose a fully Bayes objective…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-13 Guido Consonni , Laura Deldossi

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

This study concerns the formulation and application of Bayesian optimal experimental design to symbolic discovery, which is the inference from observational data of predictive models taking general functional forms. We apply constrained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Kenneth L. Clarkson , Cristina Cornelio , Sanjeeb Dash , Joao Goncalves , Lior Horesh , Nimrod Megiddo

A Bayesian approach to variable selection which is based on the expected Kullback-Leibler divergence between the full model and its projection onto a submodel has recently been suggested in the literature. Here we extend this idea by…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-01-30 David Nott , Chenlei Leng