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Related papers: Data-driven ambiguity sets with probabilistic guar…

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Our world is ambiguous and this is reflected in the data we use to train our algorithms. This is particularly true when we try to model natural processes where collected data is affected by noisy measurements and differences in measurement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Jörg K. H. Franke , Frederic Runge , Frank Hutter

This monograph develops a comprehensive statistical learning framework that is robust to (distributional) perturbations in the data using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) under the Wasserstein metric. Beginning with fundamental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-23 Ruidi Chen , Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis

Constructing uncertainty sets as unions of multiple subsets has emerged as an effective approach for creating compact and flexible uncertainty representations in data-driven robust optimization (RO). This paper focuses on two separate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-18 Yun Li , Neil Yorke-Smith , Tamas Keviczky

Data-driven sequential decision has found a wide range of applications in modern operations management, such as dynamic pricing, inventory control, and assortment optimization. Most existing research on data-driven sequential decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-01 Yining Wang , Xi Chen , Xiangyu Chang , Dongdong Ge

Distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) over Wasserstein ambiguity sets exhibit attractive out-of-sample performance and admit big-$M$-based mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations with conic constraints.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-14 Nam Ho-Nguyen , Fatma Kılınç-Karzan , Simge Küçükyavuz , Dabeen Lee

We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Isaac Lavine , Michael Lindon , Mike West

Robust estimation for modern portfolio selection on a large set of assets becomes more important due to large deviation of empirical inference on big data. We propose a distributionally robust methodology for high-dimensional mean-variance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-12 Ruike Wu , Yanrong Yang , Han Lin Shang , Huanjun Zhu

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are known to be sensitive to parameter specification. Distributionally robust MDPs alleviate this issue by allowing for \emph{ambiguity sets} which give a set of possible distributions over parameter sets.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-05 Julien Grand-Clément , Christian Kroer

Hidden variable graphical models can sometimes imply constraints on the observable distribution that are more complex than simple conditional independence relations. These observable constraints can falsify assumptions of the model that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Michael C. Sachs , Erin E. Gabriel , Robin J. Evans , Arvid Sjölander

Data-driven distributionally robust optimization is a recently emerging paradigm aimed at finding a solution that is driven by sample data but is protected against sampling errors. An increasingly popular approach, known as Wasserstein…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-20 Jonathan Yu-Meng Li , Tiantian Mao

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Simon H. Tindemans , Goran Strbac

We study decision problems under uncertainty, where the decision-maker has access to $K$ data sources that carry {\em biased} information about the underlying risk factors. The biases are measured by the mismatch between the risk factor…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-18 Yves Rychener , Adrian Esteban-Perez , Juan M. Morales , Daniel Kuhn

We introduce a framework for the control of discrete-time switched stochastic systems with uncertain distributions. In particular, we consider stochastic dynamics with additive noise whose distribution lies in an ambiguity set of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-21 Ibon Gracia , Dimitris Boskos , Morteza Lahijanian , Luca Laurenti , Manuel Mazo

Missing data can significantly hamper standard time series analysis, yet they occur frequently in applications. In this paper, we introduce temporal Wasserstein imputation, a novel method for imputing missing data in time series. Unlike…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-15 Shuo-Chieh Huang , Tengyuan Liang , Ruey S. Tsay

We introduce a general framework for Markov decision problems under model uncertainty in a discrete-time infinite horizon setting. By providing a dynamic programming principle we obtain a local-to-global paradigm, namely solving a local,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-06 Ariel Neufeld , Julian Sester , Mario Šikić

This paper studies adaptive distributionally robust dispatch (DRD) of the multi-energy microgrid under supply and demand uncertainties. A Wasserstein ambiguity set is constructed to support data-driven decision-making. By fully leveraging…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-15 Xunhang Sun , Xiaoyu Cao , Bo Zeng , Miaomiao Li , Xiaohong Guan , Tamer Başar

The goal of this research is to derive an approach to assess uncertainty in an arbitrary volume conditioned by sampling data, without using geostatistical simulation. We have accomplished this goal by deriving an numerical tool suitable for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-22 Alvaro I. Riquelme , Julian M. Ortiz

We study multistage distributionally robust linear optimization, where the uncertainty set is defined as a ball of distribution centered at a scenario tree using the nested distance. The resulting minimax problem is notoriously difficult to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-24 Rui Gao , Rohit Arora , Yizhe Huang

We develop a new quantifier for forward time uncertainty for trajectories that are solutions of models generated from data sets. Our uncertainty quantifier is defined on the phase space in which the trajectories evolve and we show that it…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-11-24 Guillermo García-Sánchez , Ana M. Mancho , Stephen Wiggins

Incorporating external data can improve the efficiency of clinical trials, but distributional mismatches between current and external populations threaten the validity of inference. While numerous dynamic borrowing methods exist, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Yui Kimura , Shu Tamano