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We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…
Consistent sampling is a technique for specifying, in small space, a subset $S$ of a potentially large universe $U$ such that the elements in $S$ satisfy a suitably chosen sampling condition. Given a subset $\mathcal{I}\subseteq U$ it…
Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…
We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…
Estimating latent epidemic states and model parameters from partially observed, noisy data remains a major challenge in infectious disease modeling. State-space formulations provide a coherent probabilistic framework for such inference, yet…
This paper surveys some well-established approaches on the approximation of Bayes factors used in Bayesian model choice, mostly as covered in Chen et al. (2000). Our focus here is on methods that are based on importance sampling strategies…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is commonly used for parameter estimation and model comparison for intractable simulator-based models whose likelihood function cannot be evaluated. In this paper we instead investigate the feasibility…
The performance of the Monte Carlo sampling methods relies on the crucial choice of a proposal density. The notion of optimality is fundamental to design suitable adaptive procedures of the proposal density within Monte Carlo schemes. This…
We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…
Nested sampling (NS) is the preferred stochastic sampling algorithm for gravitational-wave inference for compact binary coalenscences (CBCs). It can handle the complex nature of the gravitational-wave likelihood surface and provides an…
This paper is concerned with Bayesian inference when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We propose an annealed importance sampling procedure for estimating expectations with respect to the posterior.…
A key limitation of sampling algorithms for approximate inference is that it is difficult to quantify their approximation error. Widely used sampling schemes, such as sequential importance sampling with resampling and Metropolis-Hastings,…
In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…
Bayesian inference is a widely used technique for real-time characterization of quantum systems. It excels in experimental characterization in the low data regime, and when the measurements have degrees of freedom. A decisive factor for its…
This article addresses online variational estimation in parametric state-space models. We propose a new procedure for efficiently computing the evidence lower bound and its gradient in a streaming-data setting, where observations arrive…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a useful class of methods for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is computationally intractable. In practice, the basic ABC algorithm may be inefficient in the presence of discrepancy…
Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are a principled approach to modeling predictive uncertainties in deep learning, which are important in safety-critical applications. Since exact Bayesian inference over the weights in a BNN is intractable,…
Predictive posterior densities (PPDs) are of interest in approximate Bayesian inference. Typically, these are estimated by simple Monte Carlo (MC) averages using samples from the approximate posterior. We observe that the signal-to-noise…