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We propose a novel approach to elicit the weight of a potentially non-stationary regressor in the consistent and oracle-efficient estimation of autoregressive models using the adaptive Lasso. The enhanced weight builds on a statistic that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Thilo Reinschlüssel , Martin C. Arnold

We consider a class of generalized capital asset pricing models in continuous time with a finite number of agents and tradable securities. The securities may not be sufficient to span all sources of uncertainty. If the agents have…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-23 Ulrich Horst , Michael Kupper , Andrea Macrina , Christoph Mainberger

Lasso and Dantzig selector are standard procedures able to perform variable selection and estimation simultaneously. This paper is concerned with extending these procedures to spatial point process intensity estimation. We propose adaptive…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-24 Achmad Choiruddin , Jean-François Coeurjolly , Frédérique Letué

While many methods are available to detect structural changes in a time series, few procedures are available to quantify the uncertainty of these estimates post-detection. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a new framework to test…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-16 Sean Jewell , Paul Fearnhead , Daniela Witten

Quantile regression, a robust method for estimating conditional quantiles, has advanced significantly in fields such as econometrics, statistics, and machine learning. In high-dimensional settings, where the number of covariates exceeds…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-04 The Tien Mai

Pricing financial derivatives, in particular European-style options at different time-maturities and strikes, means a relevant problem in finance. The dynamics describing the price of vanilla options when constant volatilities and interest…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-01-22 Javier Gonzalez-Conde , Ángel Rodríguez-Rozas , Enrique Solano , Mikel Sanz

This work explores use of novel advances in best subset selection for regression modelling via continuous optimization for offline change point detection and estimation in univariate Gaussian data sequences. The approach exploits…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Hans Reimann , Sarat Moka , Georgy Sofronov

Practical inference procedures for quantile regression models of panel data have been a pervasive concern in empirical work, and can be especially challenging when the panel is observed over many time periods and temporal dependence needs…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-25 Antonio F. Galvao , Carlos Lamarche , Thomas Parker

We derive new theoretical results on the properties of the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (adaptive lasso) for time series regression models. In particular, we investigate the question of how to conduct finite…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-06 Francesco Audrino , Lorenzo Camponovo

The online portfolio selection (OLPS) problem differs from classical portfolio model problems, as it involves making sequential investment decisions. Many OLPS strategies described in the literature capture market movement based on various…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-03 Man Yiu Tsang , Tony Sit , Hoi Ying Wong

We derive asymptotic properties of penalized estimators for singular models for which identifiability may break and the true parameter values can lie on the boundary of the parameter space. Selection consistency of the estimators is also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-24 Junichiro Yoshida , Nakahiro Yoshida

Shrinkage estimators that possess the ability to produce sparse solutions have become increasingly important to the analysis of today's complex datasets. Examples include the LASSO, the Elastic-Net and their adaptive counterparts.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-09 Hongmei Liu , J. Sunil Rao

As one of the most commonly seen data challenges, missing data, in particular, multiple, non-monotone missing patterns, complicates estimation and inference due to the fact that missingness mechanisms are often not missing at random, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Jianing Dong , Raymond K. W. Wong , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

We describe a simple, efficient, permutation based procedure for selecting the penalty parameter in the LASSO. The procedure, which is intended for applications where variable selection is the primary focus, can be applied in a variety of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-04-09 Jeremy Sabourin , William Valdar , Andrew Nobel

Change point detection algorithms have numerous applications in fields of scientific and economic importance. We consider the problem of change point detection on compositional multivariate data (each sample is a probability mass function),…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-16 Prabuchandran K. J. , Nitin Singh , Pankaj Dayama , Vinayaka Pandit

Quantile regression is a statistical method for estimating conditional quantiles of a response variable. In addition, for mean estimation, it is well known that quantile regression is more robust to outliers than $l_2$-based methods. By…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-18 Steven Siwei Ye , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

This paper explores the concept of random-time subordination in modelling stock-price dynamics, and We first present results on the Laplace distribution as a Gaussian variance-mixture, in particular a more efficient volatility estimation…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-17 Rohan Shenoy , Peter Kempthorne

A common approach to detect multiple changepoints is to minimise a measure of data fit plus a penalty that is linear in the number of changepoints. This paper shows that the general finite sample behaviour of such a method can be related to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-15 Chao Zheng , Idris A. Eckley , Paul Fearnhead

Data clustering is an instrumental tool in the area of energy resource management. One problem with conventional clustering is that it does not take the final use of the clustered data into account, which may lead to a very suboptimal use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Chao Zhang , Samson Lasaulce , Martin Hennebel , Lucas Saludjian , Patrick Panciatici , H. Vincent Poor

Variable selection in relation to regression modeling has constituted a methodological problem for more than 60 years. Especially in the context of high-dimensional regression, developing stable and reliable methods, algorithms, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-04 Charlotte Castel , Zhi Zhao , Magne Thoresen