Related papers: Risk-sensitive safety specifications for stochasti…
This paper presents a new safety specification method that is robust against errors in the probability distribution of disturbances. Our proposed distributionally robust safe policy maximizes the probability of a system remaining in a…
Motivated by the recent interest in risk-aware control, we study a continuous-time control synthesis problem to bound the risk that a stochastic linear system violates a given specification. We use risk signal temporal logic as a…
The Pickands estimator for the extreme value index is beneficial due to its universal consistency, location, and scale invariance, which sets it apart from other types of estimators. However, similar to many extreme value index estimators,…
This paper firstly addresses the problem of risk assessment under false data injection attacks on uncertain control systems. We consider an adversary with complete system knowledge, injecting stealthy false data into an uncertain control…
We consider a class of chance-constrained programs in which profit needs to be maximized while enforcing that a given adverse event remains rare. Using techniques from large deviations and extreme value theory, we show how the optimal value…
In this paper a class of combinatorial optimization problems is discussed. It is assumed that a solution can be constructed in two stages. The current first-stage costs are precisely known, while the future second-stage costs are only known…
In this paper we study variational inequalities (VI) defined by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of uncertain functions. We introduce stochastic approximation schemes that employ an empirical estimate of the CVaR at each iteration to…
Optimal portfolio allocation is often formulated as a constrained risk problem, where one aims to minimize a risk measure subject to some performance constraints. This paper presents new Bayesian Optimization algorithms for such constrained…
The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a tail expectation. Range Value at Risk (RVaR) is a natural…
Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…
The standard approach to risk-averse control is to use the Exponential Utility (EU) functional, which has been studied for several decades. Like other risk-averse utility functionals, EU encodes risk aversion through an increasing convex…
We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…
Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…
Scenario reduction (SR) alleviates the computational complexity of scenario-based stochastic optimization with conditional value-at-risk (SBSO-CVaR) by identifying representative scenarios to depict the underlying uncertainty and tail…
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…
The problem of data uncertainty has motivated the incorporation of robust optimization in various arenas, beyond the Markowitz portfolio optimization. This work presents the extension of the robust optimization framework for the…
Safe control in dynamic traffic environments remains a major challenge for autonomous vehicles (AVs), as ego vehicle and obstacle states are inherently affected by sensing noise and estimation uncertainty. However, existing studies have not…
This paper addresses risk averse constrained optimization problems where the objective and constraint functions can only be computed by a blackbox subject to unknown uncertainties. To handle mixed aleatory/epistemic uncertainties, the…
Ensuring the safety of neural networks under input uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in safety-critical applications. This paper builds on and expands Fazlyab's quadratic-constraint (QC) and semidefinite-programming (SDP) framework for…
Motivated by the prominence of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure for tail risk in settings affected by uncertainty, we develop a new formula for approximating CVaR based optimization objectives and their gradients from limited…