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Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-16 Vitor Hadad , David A. Hirshberg , Ruohan Zhan , Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

This work proposes new inference methods for a regression coefficient of interest in a (heterogeneous) quantile regression model. We consider a high-dimensional model where the number of regressors potentially exceeds the sample size but a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Kengo Kato

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a multivariate Bernoulli process with auto-regressive feedback in the high-dimensional setting where the number of samples available is much less than the number of parameters. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-25 Parthe Pandit , Mojtaba Sahraee-Ardakan , Arash A. Amini , Sundeep Rangan , Alyson K. Fletcher

We study the parameter estimation method for linear regression models with possibly skewed stable distributed errors. Our estimation procedure consists of two stages: first, for the regression coefficients, the Cauchy quasi-maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Eitaro Kawamo , Hiroki Masuda

Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Jesse Wheeler , Edward L. Ionides

In a classical regression model, it is usually assumed that the explanatory variables are independent of each other and error terms are normally distributed. But when these assumptions are not met, situations like the error terms are not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-08 Bahadır Yüzbaşı , Yasin Asar , Ahmet Demiralp , M. Şamil Şık

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , David J Warne , David J Nott , Christopher Drovandi

Classical least squares estimators are well-known to be robust with respect to moment assumptions concerning the error distribution in a wide variety of finite-dimensional statistical problems; generally only a second moment assumption is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-08 Qiyang Han , Jon A. Wellner

Profile likelihood confidence intervals are a robust alternative to Wald's method if the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator are not met. However, the constrained optimization problem defining profile likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-10 Samuel M. Fischer , Mark A. Lewis

Standard conformal prediction methods guarantee marginal coverage but often produce inefficient intervals that fail to adapt to local heteroscedasticity, while recent localized approaches often struggle to maintain validity across distinct…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Yuan Lu

We introduce a simple modification to the standard maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework. Rather than maximizing a single unconditional likelihood of the data under the model, we maximize a family of \textit{noise conditional}…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-20 Henry Li , Yuval Kluger

The paper offers a novel unified approach to studying the accuracy of parameter estimation by the quasi likelihood method. Important features of the approach are: (1) The underlying model {is not assumed to be parametric}. (2) No conditions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-11 V. Spokoiny

Profile likelihood intervals of large quantiles in Extreme Value distributions provide a good way to estimate these parameters of interest since they take into account the asymmetry of the likelihood surface in the case of small and…

Applications · Statistics 2010-05-21 A. Bolívar , E. Díaz-Francés , J. Ortega , E. Vilchis

In this note a new high performance least squares parameter estimator is proposed. The main features of the estimator are: (i) global exponential convergence is guaranteed for all identifiable linear regression equations; (ii) it…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Romeo Ortega , Jose Guadalupe Romero , Stanislav Aranovskiy

We consider distributed estimation of the inverse covariance matrix, also called the concentration or precision matrix, in Gaussian graphical models. Traditional centralized estimation often requires global inference of the covariance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-15 Zhaoshi Meng , Dennis Wei , Ami Wiesel , Alfred O. Hero

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Julian Rodemann , Alexander Marquard , Thomas Augustin , Michele Caprio

Accurate statistical inference in logistic regression models remains a critical challenge when the ratio between the number of parameters and sample size is not negligible. This is because approximations based on either classical asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-19 Qian Zhao , Emmanuel J. Candes

Good robust estimators can be tuned to combine a high breakdown point and a specified asymptotic efficiency at a central model. This happens in regression with MM- and tau-estimators among others. However, the finite-sample efficiency of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Ricardo Maronna , Víctor Yohai

In this paper we provide a new efficient algorithm for approximately computing the profile maximum likelihood (PML) distribution, a prominent quantity in symmetric property estimation. We provide an algorithm which matches the previous best…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-11-06 Nima Anari , Moses Charikar , Kirankumar Shiragur , Aaron Sidford

Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-18 Jiacheng Wu , Jian-Xun Wang , Shawn C. Shadden