Related papers: Extreme Value Based Estimation of Critical Single …
In the current market practice, many cyber insurance products offer a coverage bundle for losses arising from various types of incidents, such as data breaches and ransomware attacks, and the coverage for each incident type comes with a…
In complex event processing (CEP), load shedding is performed to maintain a given latency bound during overload situations when there is a limitation on resources. However, shedding load implies degradation in the quality of results (QoR).…
Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…
Critical exponents have been obtained for a 3D spin particle system. Clusters are formed and system reaches a critical behavior when fragment size distribution follows a power law, as predicted by Fisher Liquid Droplet Model. Also,…
We study linear policy approximations for the risk-conscious operation of an industrial energy system with uncertain wind power, significant and variable electricity demand, and high thermal output, as found in a modern foundry. The system…
The object of this paper is twofold. From one side we study the dichotomy, in terms of the Extremal Index of the possible Extreme Value Laws, when the rare events are centred around periodic or non periodic points. Then we build a general…
Rare events play a key role in many applications and numerous algorithms have been proposed for estimating the probability of a rare event. However, relatively little is known on how to quantify the sensitivity of the probability with…
A self-consistent procedure for the ion-induced soft error rate calculation in space environment taking into account Error Correcting Codes is proposed. The method is based on the partitioning of the multiple cell events into groups with…
Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…
Using the simulation data coming from the cascade model, we have studied the behavior of event number as a function of impact parameter-b and a number of all charged particles- Nch for light and heavy nuclei at different energies. We have…
Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…
Intelligent systems are increasingly integral to our daily lives, yet rare safety-critical events present significant latent threats to their practical deployment. Addressing this challenge hinges on accurately predicting the probability of…
We propose a new method for estimating rare event probabilities when independent samples are available. It is assumed that the underlying probability measures satisfy a large deviations principle with a scaling parameter $\varepsilon$ that…
We conduct a non asymptotic study of the Cross Validation (CV) estimate of the generalization risk for learning algorithms dedicated to extreme regions of the covariates space. In this Extreme Value Analysis context, the risk function…
Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts a numerical score such that a correct forecast achieves a minimal…
The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…
A brief overview of the recent developments concerning theoretical description of event-by-event fluctuations in heavy-ion collisions is presented, with an emphasis on the role of exact conservation laws and calculations based on…
Statistical analysis of max-stable processes used to model spatial extremes has been limited by the difficulty in calculating the joint likelihood function. This precludes all standard likelihood-based approaches, including Bayesian…
The risk of occurrence of atypical phenomena is a cross-cutting concern in several areas, such as engineering, climatology, finance, actuarial, among others. Extreme value theory is the natural tool to approach this theme. Many of these…
Extreme value statistics (EVS) concerns the study of the statistics of the maximum or the minimum of a set of random variables. This is an important problem for any time-series and has applications in climate, finance, sports, all the way…