Related papers: Extreme Value Based Estimation of Critical Single …
Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…
The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…
Learning-based methodologies increasingly find applications in safety-critical domains like autonomous driving and medical robotics. Due to the rare nature of dangerous events, real-world testing is prohibitively expensive and unscalable.…
In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship…
This article provides a critical review of the main methods used to produce conservative estimators of probabilities of rare events, or critical failures, for reliability and certification studies in the broadest sense. These probabilities…
Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…
Evaluating the reliability of intelligent physical systems against rare safety-critical events poses a huge testing burden for real-world applications. Simulation provides a useful platform to evaluate the extremal risks of these systems…
This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…
Rare events are events that are expected to occur infrequently, or more technically, those that have low probabilities (say, order of $10^{-3}$ or less) of occurring according to a probability model. In the context of uncertainty…
Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…
A new class of integer-valued autoregressive models with dynamic survival probability is proposed. The peculiarity of this class of models lies on the specification of the survival probability through a stochastic recurrence equation. The…
The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…
The estimation of rare event probabilities plays a pivotal role in diverse fields. Our aim is to determine the probability of a hazard or system failure occurring when a quantity of interest exceeds a critical value. In our approach, the…
We investigate extreme value statistics (EVS) of general discrete time and continuous space symmetric jump processes. We first show that for unbounded jump processes, the semi-infinite propagator $G_0(x,n)$, defined as the probability for a…
We discuss an event-by-event fluctuation analysis of particle production in heavy ion collisions. We compare different approaches to the evaluation of the event-by-event dynamical fluctuations in quantities defined on groups of particles,…
This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…
A special normalization is proposed for strongly intensive quantities used in the study of event-by-event fluctuations in high energy collisions. It ensures that these measures are dimensionless and yields a common scale required for a…
Extreme events in complex physical systems, such as anomalous wind gusts, often cause significant material and human damage. Their modeling is crucial for risk assessment and understanding the underlying dynamics. In this work, we introduce…
The occurrence of successive extreme observations can have an impact on society. In extreme value theory there are parameters to evaluate the effect of clustering of high values, such as the extremal index. The estimation of the extremal…
Currently available models for spatial extremes suffer either from inflexibility in the dependence structures that they can capture, lack of scalability to high dimensions, or in most cases, both of these. We present an approach to spatial…