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We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the…

Bayesian nonparametric regression under a rescaled Gaussian process prior offers smoothness-adaptive function estimation with near minimax-optimal error rates. Hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with stochastic variable…

Although there is an extensive literature on the maxima of Gaussian processes, there are relatively few non-asymptotic bounds on their lower-tail probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop such a bound, while also allowing for many…

In the context of mod-Gaussian convergence, as defined previously in our work with J. Jacod, we obtain lower bounds for local probabilities for a sequence of random vectors which are approximately Gaussian with increasing covariance. This…

We establish a sprinkled decoupling inequality for increasing events of Gaussian vectors with an error that depends only on the maximum pairwise correlation. As an application we prove the non-triviality of the percolation phase transition…

We derive the precise asymptotic distributional behavior of Gaussian variational approximate estimators of the parameters in a single-predictor Poisson mixed model. These results are the deepest yet obtained concerning the statistical…

By exploiting the well-known observation that size-biasing or zero-biasing an infinitely divisible random variable may be achieved by adding an independent increment, combined with tools from Stein's method for compound Poisson and Gaussian…

We present results on the estimation and evaluation of success probabilities for ordinal optimisation over uncountable sets (such as subsets of $\mathbb{R}^{d}$). Our formulation invokes an assumption of a Gaussian copula model, and we show…

We present an efficient algorithm to compute tight upper bounds of collision probability between two objects with positional uncertainties, whose error distributions are represented with non-Gaussian forms. Our approach can handle noisy…

In this paper, we develop simple, yet efficient, procedures for sampling approximations of the two-Parameter Poisson-Dirichlet Process and the normalized inverse-Gaussian process. We compare the efficiency of the new approximations to the…

In this work, we describe a generic approach to show convergence with high probability for stochastic convex optimization. In previous works, either the convergence is only in expectation or the bound depends on the diameter of the domain.…

For a general free L\'evy process, we prove the existence of its higher variation processes as limits in distribution, and identify the limits in terms of the L\'evy-It\^o representation of the original process. For a general free compound…

We consider Bayesian inference problems with computationally intensive likelihood functions. We propose a Gaussian process (GP) based method to approximate the joint distribution of the unknown parameters and the data. In particular, we…

We study the persistence probability of a centered stationary Gaussian process on $\mathbb{Z}$ or $\mathbb{R}$, that is, its probability to remain positive for a long time. We describe the delicate interplay between this probability and the…

Let $X = \{X(t): t\in T \}$ be a non-centered, unit-variance, smooth Gaussian random field indexed on some parameter space $T$, and let $A_u(X,T) = \{t\in T: X(t)\geq u\}$ be the excursion set of $X$ exceeding level $u$. Under certain…

We prove that under fairly general conditions properly rescaled determinantal random point field converges to a generalized Gaussian random process.

We study nonparametric Bayesian inference for the intensity function of a covariate-driven point process. We extend recent results from the literature, showing that a wide class of Gaussian priors, combined with flexible link functions,…

Gaussian processes scale prohibitively with the size of the dataset. In response, many approximation methods have been developed, which inevitably introduce approximation error. This additional source of uncertainty, due to limited…

We analyze the Gaussian approximation as a method to obtain the first and second moments of a stochastic process described by a master equation. We justify the use of this approximation with ideas coming from van Kampen's expansion approach…

We propose a safe approximation to joint chance-constrained programming where the constraint functions are additively dependent on a normally-distributed random vector. The approximation is analytical, meaning that it requires neither…