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Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) identifies where models lack knowledge. Traditional UQ methods, often based on Bayesian neural networks, are not suitable for pre-trained non-Bayesian models. Our study addresses quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Hanjing Wang , Qiang Ji

Graphical models have demonstrated their exceptional capabilities across numerous applications. However, their performance, confidence, and trustworthiness are often limited by the inherent randomness in data generation and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Chao Chen , Chenghua Guo , Rui Xu , Jiujiu Chen , Xiangwen Liao , Xi Zhang , Sihong Xie , Hui Xiong , Philip Yu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Language Models (LMs) is key to improving their safety and reliability. Evaluations often use metrics like AUROC to assess how well UQ methods (e.g., negative sequence probabilities) correlate with task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Andrea Santilli , Adam Golinski , Michael Kirchhof , Federico Danieli , Arno Blaas , Miao Xiong , Luca Zappella , Sinead Williamson

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has gained traction in an attempt to improve the interpretability and robustness of machine learning predictions. Specifically (medical) biosignals such as electroencephalography (EEG), electrocardiography…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-06 Ivo Pascal de Jong , Andreea Ioana Sburlea , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning models is a critical step to reduce human verification effort by detecting predictions with low confidence. This paper proposes a method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of table structure…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Kehinde Ajayi , Leizhen Zhang , Yi He , Jian Wu

Assessing classification confidence is critical for leveraging large language models (LLMs) in automated labeling tasks, especially in the sensitive domains presented by Computational Social Science (CSS) tasks. In this paper, we make three…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-11-05 David Farr , Iain Cruickshank , Nico Manzonelli , Nicholas Clark , Kate Starbird , Jevin West

Despite the increasing demand for safer machine learning practices, the use of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods in production remains limited. This limitation is exacerbated by the challenge of validating UQ methods in absence of UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Arthur Pignet , Chiara Regniez , John Klein

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) encompass a variety of approaches, with two major types being particularly prominent: information-based, which focus on model confidence expressed as token…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Albina Ilina , Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Preslav Nakov , Artem Shelmanov , Maxim Panov

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) becomes critical for safe and effective use. Most existing UQ approaches for language models aim to produce a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Maiya Goloburda , Roman Vashurin , Fedor Chernogorsky , Nurkhan Laiyk , Daniil Orel , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

Trustworthy deployment of ML models requires a proper measure of uncertainty, especially in safety-critical applications. We focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for classification problems via two avenues -- prediction sets using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-08 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Aaditya Ramdas

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific and engineering domains. However, DNNs can make unexpected, incorrect, yet overconfident predictions, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang , Tingsong Xiao , Zelin Xu , Yukun Li

The goals of this chapter are twofold. First, we wish to introduce molecular dynamics (MD) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) in a common setting in order to demonstrate how the latter can increase confidence in the former. In some cases,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-01-09 Paul N. Patrone , Andrew Dienstfrey

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji

When does a large language model (LLM) know what it does not know? Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides measures of uncertainty, such as an estimate of the confidence in an LLM's generated output, and is therefore increasingly…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Junkyu Lee , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Michael Glass , Xiao Shou

The importance of uncertainty quantification is increasingly recognized in the diverse field of machine learning. Accurately assessing model prediction uncertainty can help provide deeper understanding and confidence for researchers and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Tianyi Chen , Yingzhou Lu , Nan Hao , Yuanyuan Zhang , Capucine Van Rechem , Jintai Chen , Tianfan Fu

A model's ability to express its own predictive uncertainty is an essential attribute for maintaining clinical user confidence as computational biomarkers are deployed into real-world medical settings. In the domain of cancer digital…

OOD detection has become more pertinent with advances in network design and increased task complexity. Identifying which parts of the data a given network is misclassifying has become as valuable as the network's overall performance. We can…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Rishi Singhal , Srinath Srinivasan

Machine learning (ML) offers promising new approaches to tackle complex problems and has been increasingly adopted in chemical and materials sciences. Broadly speaking, ML models employ generic mathematical functions and attempt to learn…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-08-21 Jin Dai , Santosh Adhikari , Mingjian Wen

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr , Paul Hofman , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier