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For a model nonlinear dynamical system, we show how one may obtain its bifurcation behavior by introducing noise into the dynamics and then studying the resulting Langevin dynamics in the weak-noise limit. A suitable quantity to capture the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2019-02-06 Debraj Das , Sayan Roy , Shamik Gupta

In the context of data-driven control of nonlinear systems, many approaches lack of rigorous guarantees, call for nonconvex optimization, or require knowledge of a function basis containing the system dynamics. To tackle these drawbacks, we…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-05 Tim Martin , Frank Allgöwer

In this article, we consider diffusion approximations for a general class of stochastic recursions. Such recursions arise as models for population growth, genetics, financial securities, multiplicative time series, numerical schemes and…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-13 David Kelly

For optimizing a non-convex function in finite dimension, a method is to add Brownian noise to a gradient descent, allowing for transitions between basins of attractions of different minimizers. To adapt this for optimization over a space…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-13 Pierre Germain , Pierre Monmarché

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-04 Maoran Xu , Hua Zhou , Yujie Hu , Leo L. Duan

This paper presents a new iterative state estimation algorithm for advection dominated flows with non-Gaussian uncertainty description of $L^\infty$-type: uncertain initial condition and model error are assumed to be pointvise bounded in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-12-05 Emanuele Ragnoli , Mykhaylo Zayats , Fearghal O'Donncha , Sergiy Zhuk

In this article, the state estimation problems with unknown process noise and measurement noise covariances for both linear and nonlinear systems are considered. By formulating the joint estimation of system state and noise parameters into…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-18 Hua Lan , Shijie Zhao , Jinjie Hu , Zengfu Wang , Jing Fu

This paper deals with the filtering problem for a class of discrete time stochastic volatility models in which the disturbances have rational probability density functions. This includes the Cauchy distributions and Student t-distributions…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2007-06-25 Bernard Hanzon , Wolfgang Scherrer

Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales.…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-10-06 Chenyu Dong , Davide Faranda , Adriano Gualandi , Valerio Lucarini , Gianmarco Mengaldo

We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-17 Andrew L. Allan

We consider the problem of optimal control for partially observed dynamical systems. Despite its prevalence in practical applications, there are still very few algorithms available, which take uncertainties in the current state estimates…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-18 Sebastian Reich

A novel approximate Bayesian filter based on backward stochastic differential equations is introduced. It uses a nonlinear Feynman--Kac representation of the filtering problem and the approximation of an unnormalized filtering density using…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Kasper Bågmark , Adam Andersson , Stig Larsson

Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-16 Théophile Cantelobre , Carlo Ciliberto , Benjamin Guedj , Alessandro Rudi

The Kalman filter and Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother are optimal for state estimation in linear dynamic systems. With nonlinear systems, the challenge consists in how to propagate uncertainty through the state transitions and output…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-11 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

This article considers the application of particle filtering to continuous-discrete optimal filtering problems, where the system model is a stochastic differential equation, and noisy measurements of the system are obtained at discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-04-29 Simo Särkkä , Tommi Sottinen

We consider discrete porous medium equations of the form \partial_t \rho_t = \Delta \phi(\rho_t), where \Delta is the generator of a reversible continuous time Markov chain on a finite set X, and \phi is an increasing function. We show that…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2012-12-06 Matthias Erbar , Jan Maas

Reliable state estimation depends on accurately modeled noise covariances, which are difficult to determine in practice. This paper formulates the noise covariance estimation as a bilevel optimization problem that factorizes the joint…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-08 Haoying Li , Yifan Peng , Yuchi Wu , Junfeng Wu

Generating high-quality time-series data is challenging because real-world signals often exhibit multimodal patterns and multiscale dynamics, including oscillations and high-frequency variations. Flow Matching (FM) offers an efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Junru Zhang , Lang Feng , Jinbo Wang , Xu Guo , Yucheng Wang , Han Yu , Min Wu , Yabo Dong , Duanqing Xu

This paper is the second of a two-part series that discusses the implementation issues and test results of a robust Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) for power system dynamic state estimation with non-Gaussian synchrophasor measurement noise.…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-06-02 Junbo Zhao , Lamine Mili

We consider a streaming signal in which each sample is linked to a latent class. We assume that multiple classifiers are available, each providing class probabilities with varying degrees of accuracy. These classifiers are employed…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-18 Ilker Bayram