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We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can…

Recently, interest has grown in the use of proxy variables of unobserved confounding for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders from observational data. One difficulty inhibiting the practical use is finding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Feng Xie , Zhengming Chen , Shanshan Luo , Wang Miao , Ruichu Cai , Zhi Geng

Scientists regularly pose questions about treatment effects on outcomes conditional on a post-treatment event. However, causal inference in such settings requires care, even in perfectly executed randomized experiments. Recently, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Chan Park , Mats Stensrud , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal machine learning has the potential to revolutionize decision-making by combining the predictive power of machine learning algorithms with the theory of causal inference. However, these methods remain underutilized by the broader…

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

Synthetic Control methods have recently gained considerable attention in applications with only one treated unit. Their popularity is partly based on the key insight that we can predict good synthetic counterfactuals for our treated unit.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-15 Tzvetan Moev

Making causal inferences from observational studies can be challenging when confounders are missing not at random. In such cases, identifying causal effects is often not guaranteed. Motivated by a real example, we consider a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-31 Jian Sun , Bo Fu

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Causal effect estimation has been studied by many researchers when only observational data is available. Sound and complete algorithms have been developed for pointwise estimation of identifiable causal queries. For non-identifiable causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-26 Ziwei Jiang , Lai Wei , Murat Kocaoglu

Establishing cause-effect relationships from observational data often relies on untestable assumptions. It is crucial to know whether, and to what extent, the conclusions drawn from non-experimental studies are robust to potential…

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

Bayesian model averaging enables one to combine the disparate predictions of a number of models in a coherent fashion, leading to superior predictive performance. The improvement in performance arises from averaging models that make…

Applications · Statistics 2011-08-01 Qingzhao Yu , Steven N. MacEachern , Mario Peruggia

In this article we have suggested an improved estimator for estimating the population mean in simple random sampling using auxiliary information under the presence of measurement errors. The mean square error (MSE) of the proposed estimator…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-05 Sachin Malik , Jayant Singh , Rajesh Singh

Bayes Factors, the Bayesian tool for hypothesis testing, are receiving increasing attention in the literature. Compared to their frequentist rivals ($p$-values or test statistics), Bayes Factors have the conceptual advantage of providing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Stavros Nikolakopoulos , Björn Alfons Edmar , Ioannis Ntzoufras

The purpose of this work is to improve the efficiency in estimating the average causal effect (ACE) on the survival scale where right-censoring exists and high-dimensional covariate information is available. We propose new estimators using…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-29 Ran Dai , Cheng Zheng , Mei-Jie Zhang

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Zeqin Yang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

The synthetic control method is a an econometric tool to evaluate causal effects when only one unit is treated. While initially aimed at evaluating the effect of large-scale macroeconomic changes with very few available control units, it…

Estimation of heterogeneous causal effects - i.e., how effects of policies and treatments vary across subjects - is a fundamental task in causal inference. Many methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) have been…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-27 Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , James M. Robins , Larry Wasserman

The synthetic control method has become a widely popular tool to estimate causal effects with observational data. Despite this, inference for synthetic control methods remains challenging. Often, inferential results rely on linear factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Ignacio Martinez , Jaume Vives-i-Bastida

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either provide only a bound estimation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu