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We propose a definition for the average indirect effect of a binary treatment in the potential outcomes model for causal inference under cross-unit interference. Our definition is analogous to the standard definition of the average direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Yuchen Hu , Shuangning Li , Stefan Wager

Mediation analysis seeks to infer how much of the effect of an exposure on an outcome can be attributed to specific pathways via intermediate variables or mediators. This requires identification of so-called path-specific effects. These…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-06 Johan Steen , Stijn Vansteelandt

In this survey we discuss the recent causal panel data literature. This recent literature has focused on credibly estimating causal effects of binary interventions in settings with longitudinal data, emphasizing practical advice for…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-26 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido Imbens

This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo

Causal mediation analysis provides techniques for defining and estimating effects that may be endowed with mechanistic interpretations. With many scientific investigations seeking to address mechanistic questions, causal direct and indirect…

This paper studies the identification of causal effects of a continuous treatment using a new difference-in-difference strategy. Our approach allows for endogeneity of the treatment, and employs repeated cross-sections. It requires an…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Xavier D'Haultfoeuille , Stefan Hoderlein , Yuya Sasaki

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Causal mediation analysis can improve understanding of the mechanisms underlying epidemiologic associations. However, the utility of natural direct and indirect effect estimation has been limited by the assumption of no confounder of the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E. Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Wenjing Zheng , Mark J. van der Laan

Identification of standard mediated effects such as the natural indirect effect relies on heavy causal assumptions. By circumventing such assumptions, so-called randomized interventional indirect effects have gained popularity in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Caleb H. Miles

Empirical researchers are often interested in not only whether a treatment affects an outcome of interest, but also how the treatment effect arises. Causal mediation analysis provides a formal framework to identify causal mechanisms through…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-01 Bora Kim

In many applications, researchers are interested in the direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest. Mediation analysis offers a rigorous framework for identifying and estimating these causal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-08 Yizhen Xu , Numair Sani , AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser

Online experimentation is at the core of Booking.com's customer-centric product development. While randomised controlled trials are a powerful tool for estimating the overall effects of product changes on business metrics, they often fall…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2018-10-31 Bahattin Tolga Öztan , Zoé van Havre , Caio Gomes , Lukas Vermeer

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Bidirectional causal relationships arising from mutual interactions between variables are commonly observed within biomedical, econometrical, and social science contexts. When such relationships are further complicated by unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Yafang Deng , Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo

There is a growing literature on finding so-called optimal treatment rules, which are rules by which to assign treatment to individuals based on an individual's characteristics, such that a desired outcome is maximized. A related goal…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-22 Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz

This paper aims to provide practitioners of causal mediation analysis with a better understanding of estimation options. We take as inputs two familiar strategies (weighting and model-based prediction) and a simple way of combining them…

The same intervention can produce different effects in different sites. Transport mediation estimators can estimate the extent to which such differences can be explained by differences in compositional factors and the mechanisms by which…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz

This paper provides a nonparametric framework for causal inference with categorical outcomes under binary treatment and binary instrument settings. I decompose the observed joint probability of outcomes and treatment into marginal…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-11 Onil Boussim

In time-to-event settings, the presence of competing events complicates the definition of causal effects. Here we propose the new separable effects to study the causal effect of a treatment on an event of interest. The separable direct…

Mediation analysis has been used in many disciplines to explain the mechanism or process that underlies an observed relationship between an exposure variable and an outcome variable via the inclusion of mediators. Decompositions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-03 Xin Gao , Li Li , Li Luo