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We establish disintegrated PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds for models trained with gradient descent methods or continuous gradient flows. Contrary to standard practice in the PAC-Bayesian setting, our result applies to optimisation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-12 Eugenio Clerico , Tyler Farghly , George Deligiannidis , Benjamin Guedj , Arnaud Doucet

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are popular and successful generative models. Despite their success, optimization is notoriously challenging. In this work, we explain the success and limitations of GANs by casting them as Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Maurizio Filippone , Marius P. Linhard

Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-05 Reza Hajargasht

Existing research has either adapted the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) Bayesian framework for federated learning (FL) or used information-theoretic PAC-Bayesian bounds while introducing their theorems, but few considering the non-IID…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-14 Zihao Zhao , Yang Liu , Wenbo Ding , Xiao-Ping Zhang

We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-16 Adrian N. Bishop , Edwin V. Bonilla

Estimating and optimizing Mutual Information (MI) is core to many problems in machine learning; however, bounding MI in high dimensions is challenging. To establish tractable and scalable objectives, recent work has turned to variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-17 Ben Poole , Sherjil Ozair , Aaron van den Oord , Alexander A. Alemi , George Tucker

In recent years, neural networks have revolutionized various domains, yet challenges such as hyperparameter tuning and overfitting remain significant hurdles. Bayesian neural networks offer a framework to address these challenges by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Hayk Amirkhanian , Marco F. Huber

The predict-then-optimize paradigm bridges online learning and contextual optimization in dynamic environments. Previous works have investigated the sequential updating of predictors using feedback from downstream decisions to minimize…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-26 Zhuojun Xie , Adam Abdin , Yiping Fang

Recently, there has been a significant focus on exploring the theoretical aspects of deep learning, especially regarding its performance in classification tasks. Bayesian deep learning has emerged as a unified probabilistic framework,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-24 The Tien Mai

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification, but accurate posterior sampling with MCMC can be computationally prohibitive for modern applications. Variational inference (VI) offers a scalable alternative and often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Laura Battaglia , Stefano Cortinovis , Chris Holmes , David T. Frazier , Jack Jewson

Modern deep learning models generalize remarkably well in-distribution, despite being overparametrized and trained with little to no explicit regularization. Instead, current theory credits implicit regularization imposed by the choice of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Jonathan Wenger , Beau Coker , Juraj Marusic , John P. Cunningham

Bayesian neural networks promise calibrated uncertainty but require $O(mn)$ parameters for standard mean-field Gaussian posteriors. We argue this cost is often unnecessary, particularly when weight matrices exhibit fast singular value…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Mame Diarra Toure , David A. Stephens

While learning the maximum likelihood value of parameters of an undirected graphical model is hard, modelling the posterior distribution over parameters given data is harder. Yet, undirected models are ubiquitous in computer vision and text…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Max Welling , Sridevi Parise

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Aggregated predictors are obtained by making a set of basic predictors vote according to some weights, that is, to some probability distribution. Randomized predictors are obtained by sampling in a set of basic predictors, according to some…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-03 Pierre Alquier

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-27 David Reeb , Andreas Doerr , Sebastian Gerwinn , Barbara Rakitsch

This paper presents four theoretical contributions that improve the usability of risk certificates for neural networks based on PAC-Bayes bounds. First, two bounds on the KL divergence between Bernoulli distributions enable the derivation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Diego García-Pérez , Emilio Parrado-Hernández , John Shawe-Taylor

Bayesian approach, as a useful tool for quantifying uncertainties, has been widely used for solving inverse problems of partial differential equations (PDEs). One of the key difficulties for employing Bayesian approach for the issue is how…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Junxiong Jia , Qian Zhao , Zongben Xu , Deyu Meng , Yee Leung

The dominant term in PAC-Bayes bounds is often the Kullback--Leibler divergence between the posterior and prior. For so-called linear PAC-Bayes risk bounds based on the empirical risk of a fixed posterior kernel, it is possible to minimize…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Gintare Karolina Dziugaite , Kyle Hsu , Waseem Gharbieh , Gabriel Arpino , Daniel M. Roy

We give a novel, unified derivation of conditional PAC-Bayesian and mutual information (MI) generalization bounds. We derive conditional MI bounds as an instance, with special choice of prior, of conditional MAC-Bayesian (Mean Approximately…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-18 Peter Grünwald , Thomas Steinke , Lydia Zakynthinou
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