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One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 David M. Blei , Alp Kucukelbir , Jon D. McAuliffe

The paper solves the problem of optimal portfolio choice when the parameters of the asset returns distribution, like the mean vector and the covariance matrix are unknown and have to be estimated by using historical data of the asset…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 David Bauder , Taras Bodnar , Nestor Parolya , Wolfgang Schmid

Variational inference (VI) has emerged as a popular method for approximate inference for high-dimensional Bayesian models. In this paper, we propose a novel VI method that extends the naive mean field via entropic regularization, referred…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Bohan Wu , David Blei

Understanding the generalization behavior of deep neural networks remains a fundamental challenge in modern statistical learning theory. Among existing approaches, PAC-Bayesian norm-based bounds have demonstrated particular promise due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-14 Xinping Yi , Gaojie Jin , Xiaowei Huang , Shi Jin

Considering a probability distribution over parameters is known as an efficient strategy to learn a neural network with non-differentiable activation functions. We study the expectation of a probabilistic neural network as a predictor by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-17 Louis Fortier-Dubois , Gaël Letarte , Benjamin Leblanc , François Laviolette , Pascal Germain

This paper presents an approach for learning vision-based planners that provably generalize to novel environments (i.e., environments unseen during training). We leverage the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC)-Bayes framework to obtain an…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-11-11 Sushant Veer , Anirudha Majumdar

Deep neural network (NN) with millions or billions of parameters can perform really well on unseen data, after being trained from a finite training set. Various prior theories have been developed to explain such excellent ability of NNs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Khoat Than , Dat Phan

Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification. We propose predictive variational inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Jinlin Lai , Antonio Linero , Yuling Yao

While there has been progress in developing non-vacuous generalization bounds for deep neural networks, these bounds tend to be uninformative about why deep learning works. In this paper, we develop a compression approach based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Sanae Lotfi , Marc Finzi , Sanyam Kapoor , Andres Potapczynski , Micah Goldblum , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Cheng Zeng , Eleni Dilma , Jason Xu , Leo L Duan

The Bayesian posterior minimizes the "inferential risk" which itself bounds the "predictive risk". This bound is tight when the likelihood and prior are well-specified. However since misspecification induces a gap, the Bayesian posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Warren R. Morningstar , Alexander A. Alemi , Joshua V. Dillon

Existing guarantees in terms of rigorous upper bounds on the generalization error for the original random forest algorithm, one of the most frequently used machine learning methods, are unsatisfying. We discuss and evaluate various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-07 Stephan Sloth Lorenzen , Christian Igel , Yevgeny Seldin

By leveraging experience from previous tasks, meta-learning algorithms can achieve effective fast adaptation ability when encountering new tasks. However it is unclear how the generalization property applies to new tasks. Probably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Tianyu Liu , Jie Lu , Zheng Yan , Guangquan Zhang

In this paper, we consider the problem of parametric empirical Bayes estimation of an i.i.d. prior in high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression, with random design. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the variational Empirical Bayes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Seunghyun Lee , Nabarun Deb

We consider Bayesian variable selection for binary outcomes under a probit link with a spike-and-slab prior on the regression coefficients. Motivated by the computational challenges encountered by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers in…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-18 Augusto Fasano , Giovanni Rebaudo

To adopt neural networks in safety critical domains, knowing whether we can trust their predictions is crucial. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide uncertainty estimates by averaging predictions with respect to the posterior weight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-17 Jannik Schmitt , Stefan Roth

We challenge the longstanding assumption that the mean-field approximation for variational inference in Bayesian neural networks is severely restrictive, and show this is not the case in deep networks. We prove several results indicating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-11 Sebastian Farquhar , Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal

We apply the PAC-Bayes theory to the setting of learning-to-optimize. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first framework to learn optimization algorithms with provable generalization guarantees (PAC-bounds) and explicit trade-off…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Michael Sucker , Peter Ochs

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

In the PAC-Bayesian literature, the C-Bound refers to an insightful relation between the risk of a majority vote classifier (under the zero-one loss) and the first two moments of its margin (i.e., the expected margin and the voters'…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-01 Paul Viallard , Pascal Germain , Amaury Habrard , Emilie Morvant