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Quantile regression is an important tool for estimation of conditional quantiles of a response Y given a vector of covariates X. It can be used to measure the effect of covariates not only in the center of a distribution, but also in the…
The autoregressive (AR) models are used to represent the time-varying random process in which output depends linearly on previous terms and a stochastic term (the innovation). In the classical version, the AR models are based on normal…
This paper presents a framework for binary autoregressive time series in which each observation is a Bernoulli variable whose success probability evolves with past outcomes and probabilities, in the spirit of GARCH-type dynamics,…
In this paper, we consider the problem of linear regression with heavy-tailed distributions. Different from previous studies that use the squared loss to measure the performance, we choose the absolute loss, which is capable of estimating…
This paper proposes a robust Bayesian accelerated failure time model for censored survival data. We develop a new family of life-time distributions using a scale mixture of the generalized gamma distributions, where we propose a novel super…
Factor models have large potencial in the modeling of several natural and human phenomena. In this paper we consider a multivariate time series $\mb{Y}_n$, ${n\geq 1}$, rescaled through random factors $\mb{T}_n$, ${n\geq 1}$, extending some…
Recursive max-linear vectors provide models for causal dependence between large values of random variables that are supported on directed acyclic graphs, but the standard assumption that all nodes of such a graph are observed can be…
Real-world data often exhibits sequential dependence, across diverse domains such as human behavior, medicine, finance, and climate modeling. Probabilistic methods capture the inherent uncertainty associated with prediction in these…
In many large-scale inverse problems, such as computed tomography and image deblurring, characterization of sharp edges in the solution is desired. Within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, edge-preservation is often achieved using…
This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…
Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…
In the current study, a brand-new SINARS(1) model is proposed for stationary discrete time series defined on $\boldsymbol{Z}$, based on extended binomial distribution and the Pegram's operator. The model effectively characterizes the series…
Deploying deep models in real-world scenarios entails a number of challenges, including computational efficiency and real-world (e.g., long-tailed) data distributions. We address the combined challenge of learning long-tailed distributions…
The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…
This paper studies the problem of recursively estimating the weighted adjacency matrix of a network out of a temporal sequence of binary-valued observations. The observation sequence is generated from nonlinear networked dynamics in which…
Extreme events are of great importance since they often represent impactive occurrences. For instance, in terms of climate and weather, extreme events might be major storms, floods, extreme heat or cold waves, and more. However, they are…
Linear regression with the classical normality assumption for the error distribution may lead to an undesirable posterior inference of regression coefficients due to the potential outliers. This paper considers the finite mixture of two…
We introduce a general class of autoregressive models for studying the dynamic of multivariate binary time series with stationary exogenous covariates. Using a high-level set of assumptions, we show that existence of a stationary path for…
The bootstrap procedure has emerged as a general framework to construct prediction intervals for future observations in autoregressive time series models. Such models with outlying data points are standard in real data applications,…
Generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models are a class of observation-driven time series models that employ the score to dynamically update time-varying parameters of the underlying probability distribution. GAS models have been…