Related papers: An arbitrage-free conic martingale model with appl…
We construct a binary market model with memory that approximates a continuous-time market model driven by a Gaussian process equivalent to Brownian motion. We give a sufficient conditions for the binary market to be arbitrage-free. In a…
In this article we present a continuous time model for natural gas and crude oil future prices. Its main feature is the possibility to link both energies in the long term and in the short term. For each energy, the future returns are…
A class of estimating functions is introduced for the regression parameter of the Cox proportional hazards model to allow unknown failure statuses on some study subjects. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators…
This paper presents a stochastic model for discrete-time trading in financial markets where trading costs are given by convex cost functions and portfolios are constrained by convex sets. The model does not assume the existence of a cash…
This paper considers the problem of robust adaptive efficient estimating of a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with the dependent noises given by a general square integrable semimartingale with a conditionally…
This paper studies the pricing of contingent claims of American style, using indifference pricing by fully dynamic convex risk measures. We provide a general definition of risk-indifference prices for buyers and sellers in continuous time,…
This paper explores hypothesis testing for the parametric forms of the mean and variance functions in regression models under diverging-dimension settings. To mitigate the curse of dimensionality, we introduce weighted residual empirical…
The recent "correlation breakdown" in the modeling of credit default swaps, in which model correlations had to exceed 100% in order to reproduce market prices of supersenior tranches, is analyzed and argued to be a fundamental market…
We extend the information-based asset-pricing framework by Brody, Hughston \& Macrina to incorporate a stochastic bankruptcy time for the writer of the asset. Our model introduces a non-defaultable cash flow $Z_T$ to be made at time $T$,…
We study an optimal investment/consumption problem in a model capturing market and credit risk dependencies. Stochastic factors drive both the default intensity and the volatility of the stocks in the portfolio. We use the martingale…
We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We start from the Merton model which default events and losses are derived from the asset values at maturity. To estimate the time development of the asset values, the…
This paper proposes a simple technical approach for the analytical derivation of Point-in-Time PD (probability of default) forecasts, with minimal data requirements. The inputs required are the current and future Through-the-Cycle PDs of…
This paper contributes to the study of relative martingales. Specifically, for a closed random set $H$, they are processes null on $H$ which decompose as $M=m+v$, where $m$ is a c\`adl\`ag uniformly integrable martingale and, $v$ is a…
We study the martingale optimal transport problem with state-dependent trading frictions and develop a geometric and duality framework extending from the one time-step to the multi-marginal setting. Building on the left-monotone structure…
The classic model of computable randomness considers martingales that take real or rational values. Recent work by Bienvenu et al. (2012) and Teutsch (2014) shows that fundamental features of the classic model change when the martingales…
Given a set-valued stochastic process $(V_t)_{t=0}^T$, we say that the martingale selection problem is solvable if there exists an adapted sequence of selectors $\xi_t\in V_t$, admitting an equivalent martingale measure. The aim of this…
The paper studies sub and super-replication price bounds for contingent claims defined on general trajectory based market models. No prior probabilistic or topological assumptions are placed on the trajectory space, trading is assumed to…
In the setting of stochastic Volterra equations, and in particular rough volatility models, we show that conditional expectations are the unique classical solutions to path-dependent PDEs. The latter arise from the functional It\^o formula…
We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model is given by a set of possible mutually singular probability measures. With a single probability model, essential equivalence between the absence of…
In a general semimartingale financial model, we study the stability of the No Arbitrage of the First Kind (NA1) (or, equivalently, No Unbounded Profit with Bounded Risk) condition under initial and under progressive filtration enlargements.…