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The chain-ladder (CL) method is the most widely used claims reserving technique in non-life insurance. This manuscript introduces a novel approach to computing the CL reserves based on a fundamental restructuring of the data utilization for…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-19 Ronald Richman , Mario V. Wüthrich

In the current insurance literature, prediction of insurance claims in the regression problem is often performed with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from several drawbacks: (i) model misspecification,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Liang Hong

This study models the monopoly pricing of weather index insurance as a Bowley-type sequential game involving a profit-maximizing insurer (leader) and a farmer (follower). The farmer chooses an insurance payoff to minimize a convex…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Tim J. Boonen , Wenyuan Li , Zixiao Quan

The quality of generalized linear models (GLMs), frequently used by insurance companies, depends on the choice of interacting variables. The search for interactions is time-consuming, especially for data sets with a large number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-21 Yevhen Havrylenko , Julia Heger

One of the main goals in non-life insurance is to estimate the claims reserve distribution. A generalized time series model, that allows for modeling the conditional mean and variance of the claim amounts, is proposed for the claims…

Applications · Statistics 2013-06-20 Michal Pešta , Ostap Okhrin

We design a system for risk-analyzing and pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit loans. The rapid development of credit lending business for consumers heightens the need for trading portfolios formed by overdue loans as a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-29 Siyi Wang , Xing Yan , Bangqi Zheng , Hu Wang , Wangli Xu , Nanbo Peng , Qi Wu

This article, in a first step, considers two Bayes estimators for the relativity premium of a given Bonus--Malus system. It then develops a linear relativity premium that closes, in the sense of weighted mean square error loss, to such…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-20 Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi , Mansoureh Sakizadeh

We propose Dirichlet Process mixtures of Generalized Linear Models (DP-GLM), a new method of nonparametric regression that accommodates continuous and categorical inputs, and responses that can be modeled by a generalized linear model. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-07-16 Lauren A. Hannah , David M. Blei , Warren B. Powell

We propose a new method for clustering multivariate time-series data based on Dynamic Linear Models. Whereas usual time-series clustering methods obtain static membership parameters, our proposal allows each time-series to dynamically…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-06 Victhor S. Sartório , Thaís C. O. Fonseca

To make medium- and long-term insurance products attractive, it is essential to enable participation in stock market returns. However, to eliminate downside risk, guarantees must be included, which naturally leads to the challenge of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-09 Raquel M. Gaspar , Thorsten Schmidt

Existence and uniqueness of solutions to the multi-dimensional mean-field Libor market model (introduced by [7]) is shown. This is used as the basis for a numerical asset-liability management (ALM) model capable of calculating future…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-18 Florian Gach , Simon Hochgerner , Eva Kienbacher , Gabriel Schachinger

Product classification is a crucial task in international trade, as compliance regulations are verified and taxes and duties are applied based on product categories. Manual classification of products is time-consuming and error-prone, and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Sina Gholamian , Gianfranco Romani , Bartosz Rudnikowicz , Stavroula Skylaki

Autocalibration is known to be an important requirement for insurance premiums since it guarantees that premium income balances corresponding claims, on average, not only at portfolio level but also inside each group paying similar…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-03-18 Michel Denuit , Marie Michaelides , Julien Trufin

Data analysis and individual policy-level modeling for insurance involves handling large data sets with strong spatiotemporal correlations, non-Gaussian distributions, and complex hierarchical structures. In this research, we demonstrate…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-02 Christopher Krapu , Mark Borsuk

Regression models are popular tools in empirical sciences to infer the influence of a set of variables onto a dependent variable given an experimental dataset. In neuroscience and cognitive psychology, Generalized Linear Models (GLMs)…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-04 Vincent Adam , Alexandre Hyafil

Accurate loss reserving is crucial in Property and Casualty (P&C) insurance for financial stability, regulatory compliance, and effective risk management. We propose a novel micro-level Cox model based on hidden Markov models (HMMs).…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-14 Hassan Abdelrahman , Andrei Badescu , Radu Craiu , Sheldon Lin

Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-22 Jonas Crevecoeur , Jens Robben , Katrien Antonio

This paper proposes a method for estimating consumer preferences among discrete choices, where the consumer chooses at most one product in a category, but selects from multiple categories in parallel. The consumer's utility is additive in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Rob Donnelly , Francisco R. Ruiz , David Blei , Susan Athey

This paper addresses the identification of insurance models with multidimensional screening where insurees have private information about their risk and risk aversion. The model includes a random damage and the possibility of several…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-01-18 Gaurab Aryal , Isabelle Perrigne , Quang Vuong

Claim frequency data in insurance records the number of claims on insurance policies during a finite period of time. Given that insurance companies operate with multiple lines of insurance business where the claim frequencies on different…

Applications · Statistics 2022-12-05 Pengcheng Zhang , David Pitt , Xueyuan Wu