Related papers: Evaluating proxy influence in assimilated paleocli…

``Online" data assimilation (DA) is used to generate a new seasonal-resolution reanalysis dataset over the last millennium by combining forecasts from an ocean--atmosphere--sea-ice coupled linear inverse model with climate proxy records.…

Understanding centennial scale climate variability requires data sets that are accurate, long, continuous and of broad spatial coverage. Since instrumental measurements are generally only available after 1850, temperature fields must be…

Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on…

Data Assimilation (DA) plays a critical role in atmospheric science by reconstructing spatially continous estimates of the system state, which serves as initial conditions for scientific analysis. While recent advances in diffusion models…

Great strides have been made in the field of reconstructing past temperatures based on models relating temperature to temperature-sensitive paleoclimate proxies. One of the goals of such reconstructions is to assess if current climate is…

Data assimilation (DA) aims to estimate the full state of a dynamical system by combining partial and noisy observations with a prior model forecast, commonly referred to as the background. In atmospheric applications, this problem is…

Data assimilation (DA) enables hydrologic models to update their internal states using near-real-time observations for more accurate forecasts. With deep neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM), using either lagged observations…

We produce new reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere annually averaged temperature anomalies back to 1000 AD, and explore the effects of including external climate forcings within the reconstruction and of accounting for short-memory and…

Using a very cheap Data Assimilation (DA) method, I show an alternative approach to classical DA for numerical climate models which produce a large amount of "big data". The problematic features of state-of-the-art high resolution Regional…

Accurate weather and climate prediction relies on data assimilation (DA), which estimates the Earth system state by integrating observations with models. While exascale computing has significantly advanced earth simulation, scalable and…

Paleoclimatology -- the study of past climate -- is relevant beyond climate science itself, such as in archaeology and anthropology for understanding past human dispersal. Information about the Earth's paleoclimate comes from simulations of…

Data assimilation (DA) addresses the problem of sequentially estimating the state of a dynamical system from noisy and incomplete observations. In this work, we employ a diffusion model as a world model to simulate and predict the system's…

Data assimilation of observational data into full atmospheric states is essential for weather forecast model initialization. Recently, methods for deep generative data assimilation have been proposed which allow for using new input data…

The generation of initial conditions via accurate data assimilation is crucial for weather forecasting and climate modeling. We propose DiffDA as a denoising diffusion model capable of assimilating atmospheric variables using predicted…

Predicting historic temperatures based on tree rings, ice cores, and other natural proxies is a difficult endeavor. The relationship between proxies and temperature is weak and the number of proxies is far larger than the number of target…

Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…

Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…

We outline a model and algorithm to perform inference on the palaeoclimate and palaeoclimate volatility from pollen proxy data. We use a novel multivariate non-linear non-Gaussian state space model consisting of an observation equation…

The weather and climate domains are undergoing a significant transformation thanks to advances in AI-based foundation models such as FourCastNet, GraphCast, ClimaX and Pangu-Weather. While these models show considerable potential, they are…

Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations with model forecasts to produce optimized atmospheric states, whose physical consistency is critical for stable weather forecasting and reliable climate research. Traditional Bayesian DA…