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Cryptocurrencies have gained popularity across various sectors, especially in finance and investment. Despite their growing popularity, cryptocurrencies can be a high-risk investment due to their price volatility. The inherent volatility in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Rasoul Amirzadeh , Dhananjay Thiruvady , Asef Nazari , Mong Shan Ee

Explaining changes in bitcoin's price and predicting its future have been the foci of many research studies. In contrast, far less attention has been paid to the relationship between bitcoin's mining costs and its price. One popular notion…

General Economics · Economics 2022-04-28 John E. Marthinsen , Steven R. Gordon

This paper evaluates the performance of classical time series models in forecasting Bitcoin prices, focusing on ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH. Daily price data from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed, with models trained on the first 90 percent…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-11 Anmar Kareem , Alexander Aue

Predicting a fast and accurate model for stock price forecasting is been a challenging task and this is an active area of research where it is yet to be found which is the best way to forecast the stock price. Machine learning, deep…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-13 Himanshu Gupta , Aditya Jaiswal

This study back-tests a marginal cost of production model proposed to value the digital currency bitcoin. Results from both conventional regression and vector autoregression (VAR) models show that the marginal cost of production plays an…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-05-22 Adam Hayes

The mining of bitcoin is modeled using system dynamics, showing that the past evolution of the network hash rate can be explained to a large extent by an efficient market hypothesis applied to the mining of blocks. The possibility of a…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Davide Lasi , Lukas Saul

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-03-16 Spencer Wheatley , Didier Sornette , Tobias Huber , Max Reppen , Robert N. Gantner

Bitcoin has attracted attention from different market participants due to unpredictable price patterns. Sometimes, the price has exhibited big jumps. Bitcoin prices have also had extreme, unexpected crashes. We test the predictive power of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-15 Andrés García-Medina , Toan Luu Duc Huynh3

Much significant research has been done to investigate various facets of the link between Bitcoin price and its fundamental sources. This study goes beyond by looking into least to most influential factors-across the fundamental,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-06 Jamal Bouoiyour , Refk Selmi

The availability of data on digital traces is growing to unprecedented sizes, but inferring actionable knowledge from large-scale data is far from being trivial. This is especially important for computational finance, where digital traces…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-05-13 David Garcia , Frank Schweitzer

In this paper we apply neural networks and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to historical records of high-risk cryptocurrency coins to train a prediction model that guesses their price. This paper's code contains Jupyter notebooks, one of which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Jacques Fleischer , Gregor von Laszewski , Carlos Theran , Yohn Jairo Parra Bautista

In the realm of cryptocurrency, the prediction of Bitcoin prices has garnered substantial attention due to its potential impact on financial markets and investment strategies. This paper propose a comparative study on hybrid machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Shun Liu , Kexin Wu , Chufeng Jiang , Bin Huang , Danqing Ma

The volatility and complex dynamics of cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges for accurate price forecasting. This research proposes a hybrid deep learning and machine learning model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Mehul Gautam

Understanding the variations in trading price (volatility), and its response to exogenous information, is a well-researched topic in finance. In this study, we focus on finding stable and accurate volatility predictors for a relatively new…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-07 M. Eren Akbiyik , Mert Erkul , Killian Kaempf , Vaiva Vasiliauskaite , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

Rather than directly predicting future prices or returns, we follow a more recent trend in asset management and classify the state of a market based on labels. We use numerous standard labels and even construct our own ones. The labels rely…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-08 Michal Balcerak , Thomas Schmelzer

This paper conducts an extensive analysis of Bitcoin return series, with a primary focus on three volatility metrics: historical volatility (calculated as the sample standard deviation), forecasted volatility (derived from GARCH-type…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-05 Cristina Chinazzo , Vahidin Jeleskovic

The objective of this paper is the construction of new indicators that can be useful to operate in the cryptocurrency market. These indicators are based on public data obtained from the blockchain network, specifically from the nodes that…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-05 Juan C. King , Roberto Dale , José M. Amigó

According to the advent of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, many investments and businesses are now conducted online through cryptocurrencies. Among them, Bitcoin uses blockchain technology to make transactions secure, transparent, traceable,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Milad Asadpour , Alireza Rezaee , Farshid Hajati

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of a novel method called linear law-based feature space transformation (LLT) on the accuracy of intraday price movement prediction of cryptocurrencies. To do this, the 1-minute interval…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-09 Marcell T. Kurbucz , Péter Pósfay , Antal Jakovác

Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-20 Stanisław Drożdż , Robert Gębarowski , Ludovico Minati , Paweł Oświęcimka , Marcin Wątorek