English
Related papers

Related papers: Dynamic principal component regression for forecas…

200 papers

The study of the dynamic behavior of cross-sectional ranks over time for functional data and the ranks of the observed curves at each time point and their temporal evolution can yield valuable insights into the time dynamics of functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-11 Yaqing Chen , Matthew Dawson , Hans-Georg Müller

Factor-based forecasting using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is an effective machine learning tool for dimension reduction with many applications in statistics, economics, and finance. This paper introduces a Supervised Screening and…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-24 Sihan Tu , Zhaoxing Gao

Multi-step-ahead forecasts are often updated as new observations become available, since shorter forecast horizons typically improve forecast quality. However, such improvements come at the cost of forecast instability, i.e., variability in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Jente Van Belle , Honglin Wen , Wouter Verbeke , Pierre Pinson

The advance of modern sensor technologies enables collection of multi-stream longitudinal data where multiple signals from different units are collected in real-time. In this article, we present a non-parametric approach to predict the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Seokhyun Chung , Raed Kontar

We present a technique to perform dimensionality reduction on data that is subject to uncertainty. Our method is a generalization of traditional principal component analysis (PCA) to multivariate probability distributions. In comparison to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-14 Jochen Görtler , Thilo Spinner , Dirk Streeb , Daniel Weiskopf , Oliver Deussen

We propose a robust principal component analysis (RPCA) framework to recover low-rank and sparse matrices from temporal observations. We develop an online version of the batch temporal algorithm in order to process larger datasets or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-04 Hong-Lan Botterman , Julien Roussel , Thomas Morzadec , Ali Jabbari , Nicolas Brunel

We consider the sparse principal component analysis for high-dimensional stationary processes. The standard principal component analysis performs poorly when the dimension of the process is large. We establish the oracle inequalities for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-17 Kou Fujimori , Yuichi Goto , Yan Liu , Masanobu Taniguchi

This paper considers estimating functional-coefficient models in panel quantile regression with individual effects, allowing the cross-sectional and temporal dependence for large panel observations. A latent group structure is imposed on…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-24 Xiaorong Yang , Jia Chen , Degui Li , Runze Li

Accurately predicting stock repurchases is crucial for quantitative investment and risk management, yet traditional static models fail to capture the complex temporal dependencies of corporate financial conditions. This paper proposes a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-14 Xiang Ao , Jingxuan Zhang , Xinyu Zhao

Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Derck W. E. Prinzhorn , Thijmen Nijdam , Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans

In many situations, data are recorded over a period of time and may be regarded as realizations of a stochastic process. In this paper, robust estimators for the principal components are considered by adapting the projection pursuit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-12 Juan Lucas Bali , Graciela Boente , David E. Tyler , Jane-Ling Wang

Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-09 Duo Zhang , Jiayu Li , Junyi Mo , Elynn Chen

Functional time series (FTS) data have become increasingly available in real-world applications. Research on such data typically focuses on two objectives: curve reconstruction and forecasting, both of which require efficient dimension…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Zerui Guo , Jianbin Tan , Hui Huang

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Yijun Li , Cheuk Hang Leung , Qi Wu

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a widely used technique in exploratory data analysis, visualization, and data preprocessing, leveraging the concept of variance to identify key dimensions in datasets. In this study, we focus on the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-03 Reza Dastranj , Martin Kolar

We study regression models for the situation where both dependent and independent variables are square-integrable stochastic processes. Questions concerning the definition and existence of the corresponding functional linear regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-28 Guozhong He , Hans-Georg Müller , Jane-Ling Wang , Wenjing Yang

Dynamic functional connectivity analysis provides valuable information for understanding brain functional activity underlying different cognitive processes. Besides sliding window based approaches, a variety of methods have been developed…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-09-18 Hongming Li , Yong Fan

Quantile regression is useful for characterizing the conditional distribution of a response variable and understanding heterogeneity in the covariate effects at different quantiles. The rise of high-dimensional physiological data in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Yuanzhen Yue , Stella Self , Yichao Wu , Jiajia Zhang , Rahul Ghosal

In this paper, we set up the theoretical foundations for a high-dimensional functional factor model approach in the analysis of large cross-sections (panels) of functional time series (FTS). We first establish a representation result…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-14 Shahin Tavakoli , Gilles Nisol , Marc Hallin

This paper focuses on the analysis of spatially correlated functional data. The between-curve correlation is modeled by correlating functional principal component scores of the functional data. We propose a Spatial Principal Analysis by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-19 Chong Liu , Surajit Ray , Giles Hooker