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In this paper we introduce a model, the stochastic fractional delay differential equation (SFDDE), which is based on the linear stochastic delay differential equation and produces stationary processes with hyperbolically decaying…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Richard A. Davis , Mikkel Slot Nielsen , Victor Rohde

We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Adrian Casey , Jonathan A. Tawn

Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli , Matteo Schiavone

The large deviations of an infinite moving average process with exponentially light tails are very similar to those of an i.i.d. sequence as long as the coefficients decay fast enough. If they do not, the large deviations change…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-02-26 Souvik Ghosh , Gennady Samorodnitsky

This paper presents sufficient conditions for the existence of stationary optimal policies for average-cost Markov Decision Processes with Borel state and action sets and with weakly continuous transition probabilities. The one-step cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-02-21 Eugene A. Feinberg , Pavlo O. Kasyanov , Nina V. Zadoianchuk

The linear fractional stable motion (LFSM) extends the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) by considering $\alpha$-stable increments. We propose a method to forecast future increments of the LFSM from past discrete-time observations, using the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Matthieu Garcin , Karl Sawaya , Thomas Valade

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are standard models for dynamic systems with probabilistic and nondeterministic behaviour in uncertain environments. We prove that in POMDPs with long-run average objective, the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Krishnendu Chatterjee , Raimundo Saona , Bruno Ziliotto

Periodicity is a common feature of time series. For finite-dimensional data, periodic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models have been extensively studied. In functional time series analysis, AR models have been extended to incorporate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Sebastian Kühnert , Juhyun Park

Empirical process theory for i.i.d. observations has emerged as a ubiquitous tool for understanding the generalization properties of various statistical problems. However, in many applications where the data exhibit temporal dependencies…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-18 Nabarun Deb , Debarghya Mukherjee

This article considers the average optimality for a continuous-time Markov decision process with Borel state and action spaces and an arbitrarily unbounded nonnegative cost rate. The existence of a deterministic stationary optimal policy is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-03-05 Yi Zhang

In this paper we consider a linear stochastic Volterra equation which has a stationary solution. We show that when the kernel of the fundamental solution is regularly varying at infinity with a log-convex tail integral, then the…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2010-09-08 John A. D. Appleby , Katja Krol

We evaluate the dependence among the margins of a random vector with Multivariate Extreme Value distribution throughout the expected value of a range and relate this coefficient of dependence with the multivariate tail dependence. Its…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-26 Helena Ferreira

Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Graeme Auld , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

Skew-symmetric families of distributions such as the skew-normal and skew-$t$ represent supersets of the normal and $t$ distributions, and they exhibit richer classes of extremal behaviour. By defining a non-stationary skew-normal process,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-19 Boris Beranger , Simone A. Padoan , Scott A. Sisson

We establish bounds for the covariance of a large class of functions of infinite variance stable random variables, including unbounded functions such as the power function and the logarithm. These bounds involve measures of dependence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Vladas Pipiras , Murad S. Taqqu , Patrice Abry

This work defines two classes of processes, that we term {\it tempered fractional multistable motion} and {\it tempered multifractional stable motion}. They are extensions of fractional multistable motion and multifractional stable motion,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-04 Xiequan Fan , Jacques Lévy Véhel

This paper considers the question of the rate of convergence to ${\alpha}$- stable laws, using arguments based on the Zolotarev distance to prove bounds. We provide a rate of convergence to ${\alpha}$-stable random variable where 1 <…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-27 Solym Mawaki Manou-Abi

This paper deals with the stability analysis problem of discrete-time switched linear systems with ranged dwell time. A novel concept called L-switching-cycle is proposed, which contains sequences of multiple activation cycles satisfying…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Weiming Xiang

We study a particular class of moving average processes which possess a property called localisability. This means that, at any given point, they admit a ``tangent process'', in a suitable sense. We give general conditions on the kernel g…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-25 Kenneth Falconer , Ronan Le Guével , Jacques Lévy-Véhel

We consider empirical processes generated by strictly stationary sequences of associated random variables. S. Louhichi established an invariance principle for such processes, assuming that the covariance function decays rapidly enough. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-28 Vadim Demichev
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