Related papers: Mathematically Modeling Spillover Dynamics of Emer…
This paper presents a novel probabilistic approach for assessing the risk of West Nile Disease (WND) spillover to the human population. The assessment has been conducted under two different scenarios: (1) assessment of the onset of…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
We analyse a model that describes the propagation of many pathogens within and between many species. A branching process approximation is used to compute the probability of disease outbreaks. Special cases of aquatic environments with two…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
Pathogen introduction in plant communities can cause serious impact and biodiversity losses that may take long time to manage and restore. Effective control of epidemic spreading in the wild is a problem of paramount importance, because of…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
The outbreak of mutant strains and vaccination behaviors have been the focus of recent epidemiological research, but most existing epidemic models failed to simultaneously capture viral mutation and consider the complexity and behavioral…
Swarms, such as schools of fish or drone formations, are prevalent in both natural and engineered systems. While previous works have focused on the social interactions within swarms, the role of external perturbations--such as environmental…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
This paper investigates the spread of infectious diseases within a networked community by integrating epidemic transmission and public opinion dynamics. We propose a novel discrete-time networked SIS (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible)…
The present work shows that it is possible to analytically solve a general model to explain the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. First, the within-host model is described, and later a between-host model, where the coupling between them…
A common theme among the proposed models for network epidemics is the assumption that the propagating object, i.e., a virus or a piece of information, is transferred across the nodes without going through any modification or evolution.…
We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model in the case of a population of pathogens infecting a homogeneous host population. The pathogen population is structured by a genotypic variable. When the initial mass of the…
Understanding the dynamics of infectious disease spread in a heterogeneous population is an important factor in designing control strategies. Here, we develop a novel tensor-driven multi-compartment version of the classic…
Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…
The emergence of novel infectious agents presents challenges to statistical models of disease transmission. These challenges arise from limited, poor-quality data and an incomplete understanding of the agent. Moreover, outbreaks manifest…
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of…
We present a methodology providing a one-directional link from within-host individual heterogeneity to population-level disease transmission dynamics. The methodology works in several steps. A within-host model is investigated numerically…