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Experimental design is crucial for inference where limitations in the data collection procedure are present due to cost or other restrictions. Optimal experimental designs determine parameters that in some appropriate sense make the data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-11 Panagiotis Tsilifis , Roger G. Ghanem , Paris Hajali

Computer models play a crucial role in numerous scientific and engineering domains. To ensure the accuracy of simulations, it is essential to properly calibrate the input parameters of these models through statistical inference. While…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-07 Dongkyu Derek Cho , Won Chang , Jaewoo Park

We consider Bayesian variable selection for binary outcomes under a probit link with a spike-and-slab prior on the regression coefficients. Motivated by the computational challenges encountered by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers in…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-18 Augusto Fasano , Giovanni Rebaudo

Stochastic variational inference makes it possible to approximate posterior distributions induced by large datasets quickly using stochastic optimization. The algorithm relies on the use of fully factorized variational distributions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-27 Matthew D. Hoffman , David M. Blei

Experiments in engineering are typically conducted in controlled environments where parameters can be set to any desired value. This assumes that the same applies in a real-world setting -- an assumption that is often incorrect as many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Mike Diessner , Kevin J. Wilson , Richard D. Whalley

We present a novel algorithm for parameter learning in generic deep generative models that builds upon the predictive coding (PC) framework of computational neuroscience. Our approach modifies the standard PC algorithm to bring performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Umais Zahid , Qinghai Guo , Zafeirios Fountas

Recent studies have explored the use of deep generative models of speech spectra based of variational autoencoders (VAEs), combined with unsupervised noise models, to perform speech enhancement. These studies developed iterative algorithms…

Sound · Computer Science 2019-05-15 Manuel Pariente , Antoine Deleforge , Emmanuel Vincent

We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to…

We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-15 Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes

We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables. By using a series of code transformations, the evidence of any probabilistic program, and therefore of any…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-17 Tom Rainforth , Tuan Anh Le , Jan-Willem van de Meent , Michael A. Osborne , Frank Wood

This paper presents an approximate method for performing Bayesian inference in models with conditional independence over a decentralized network of learning agents. The method first employs variational inference on each individual learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-06-13 Trevor Campbell , Jonathan P. How

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient optimization algorithm widely employed across various applications. In some challenging BO tasks, input uncertainty arises due to the inevitable randomness in the optimization process, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Lin Yang , Junlong Lyu , Wenlong Lyu , Zhitang Chen

Bayesian approach, as a useful tool for quantifying uncertainties, has been widely used for solving inverse problems of partial differential equations (PDEs). One of the key difficulties for employing Bayesian approach for the issue is how…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Junxiong Jia , Qian Zhao , Zongben Xu , Deyu Meng , Yee Leung

Variational Inference (VI) provides a scalable framework for Bayesian inference by optimizing the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO), but convergence analysis remains challenging due to the objective's non-convexity and non-smoothness in Euclidean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Sushil Bohara , Amedeo Roberto Esposito

We develop an automated variational inference method for Bayesian structured prediction problems with Gaussian process (GP) priors and linear-chain likelihoods. Our approach does not need to know the details of the structured likelihood…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-15 Pietro Galliani , Amir Dezfouli , Edwin V. Bonilla , Novi Quadrianto

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Simone Rossi , Markus Heinonen , Edwin V. Bonilla , Zheyang Shen , Maurizio Filippone

Variational inference (VI) provides fast approximations of a Bayesian posterior in part because it formulates posterior approximation as an optimization problem: to find the closest distribution to the exact posterior over some family of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-03 Fangjian Guo , Xiangyu Wang , Kai Fan , Tamara Broderick , David B. Dunson

The performance of deep (reinforcement) learning systems crucially depends on the choice of hyperparameters. Their tuning is notoriously expensive, typically requiring an iterative training process to run for numerous steps to convergence.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Vu Nguyen , Sebastian Schulze , Michael A Osborne

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-07 Prateek Jaiswal , Harsha Honnappa , Vinayak A. Rao

As a widely recognized approach to deep generative modeling, Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) still face challenges with the quality of generated images, often presenting noticeable blurriness. This issue stems from the unrealistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-22 Georgios Batzolis , Jan Stanczuk , Carola-Bibiane Schönlieb