Related papers: Probabilistic Forecasting of the Arctic Sea Ice Ed…
Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the…
Ocean dynamics are inherently chaotic, yet existing machine learning ocean models produce only deterministic forecasts. We introduce Njord, a probabilistic data-driven model for ocean forecasting, applicable to both global and regional…
We analyze the numerical solutions of a stochastic Arctic sea ice model with constant additive noise over a wide range of external heat-fluxes, $\Delta F_0$, which correspond to greenhouse gas forcing. The variability that the stochasticity…
This paper investigates the initial boundary value problem for a non-stationary one-dimensional heat equation that simulates the temperature distribution in freshwater ice near the Earth's poles. The mathematical model has been constructed…
Although by now the ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting is the most advanced approach to weather prediction, ensemble forecasts still might suffer from lack of calibration and/or display systematic bias, thus require some…
Sea-Ice drift affects various global processes including the air-sea-ice energy system, numerical ocean modelling, and maritime activity in the polar regions. Drift has been investigated via various technologies ranging from satellite based…
Accurately forecasting sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Arctic is critical to global ecosystem health and navigation safety. However, current methods still is confronted with two challenges: 1) these methods rarely explore the long-term…
Sea surface height observations provided by satellite altimetry since 1993 show a rising rate (3.4 mm/year) for global mean sea level. While on average, sea level has risen 10 cm over the last 30 years, there is considerable regional…
Coupled climate model simulations designed to isolate the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss often apply artificial heating, either directly to the ice or through modification of the surface albedo, to constrain sea-ice in the absence of other…
Sea ice plays a crucial role in the climate system, particularly in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ), a transitional area consisting of fragmented ice between the open ocean and consolidated pack ice. As the MIZ expands, understanding its…
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall…
The Arctic has warmed dramatically compared to the global average over the last few decades. During this same period, there have been strong cooling trends observed in the wintertime, near-surface air temperature over central Eurasia, a…
The safety of rotorcraft operating in cold environments is jeopardised by the possibility of ice accretion on the rotor blades. Eventually, ice can shed from the blade due to the high centrifugal forces and impact other parts of the…
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), an extreme climate phenomenon, pose significant challenges to marine ecosystems and industries, with their frequency and intensity increasing due to climate change. This study introduces an integrated deep learning…
The rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is changing weather patterns and disrupting the balance of nature. Dynamics of Arctic weather variability (WV) plays a crucial role in weather forecasting and is closely related to extreme weather…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Accurate ocean forecasting systems are vital for understanding marine dynamics, which play a crucial role in environmental management and climate adaptation strategies. Traditional numerical solvers, while effective, are computationally…
Climate science studies the structure and dynamics of Earth's climate system and seeks to understand how climate changes over time, where the data is usually stored in the format of time series, recording the climate features, geolocation,…
Forecasting sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice velocity (SIV) in the Arctic Ocean is of great significance as the Arctic environment has been changed by the recent warming climate. Given that physical sea ice models require high…
Wave attenuation by ice floes is an important parameter for modelling the Arctic Oceans. At present, attenuation coefficients are extracted from linear models as a function of the incident wave period and floe thickness. Recent explorations…