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Estimating long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational and short-term experimental data is a crucial but challenging problem in many real-world scenarios. In existing methods, several ideal assumptions, e.g. latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-12 Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Weilin Chen , Zeqin Yang , Zijian Li , Peng Zhen , Jiecheng Guo

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals has attracted growing attention as a statistical tool for performing critical decision-making. We propose a Bayesian inference framework that quantifies the uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Shunsuke Horii , Yoichi Chikahara

This paper develops a class of potential outcomes models characterized by three main features: (i) Unobserved heterogeneity can be represented by a vector of potential outcomes and a type describing the manner in which an instrument…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-10 Manu Navjeevan , Rodrigo Pinto , Andres Santos

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

This paper proposes a new non-parametric bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of average treatment effect estimate for the treated from matching estimators. More specifically, it seeks to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Jing Li

We study identification and estimation of the average treatment effect in a correlated random coefficients model that allows for first stage heterogeneity and binary instruments. The model also allows for multiple endogenous variables and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-03 Matthew A. Masten , Alexander Torgovitsky

Most work in causal inference considers deterministic interventions that set each unit's treatment to some fixed value. However, under positivity violations these interventions can lead to non-identification, inefficiency, and effects with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-20 Edward H. Kennedy

Causal inference has received great attention across different fields from economics, statistics, education, medicine, to machine learning. Within this area, inferring causal effects at individual level in observational studies has become…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-16 Thai Pham

A major focus of causal inference is the estimation of heterogeneous average treatment effects (HTE) - average treatment effects within strata of another variable of interest such as levels of a biomarker, education, or age strata.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-05 Arman Oganisian , Nandita Mitra , Jason Roy

In observational studies, unmeasured confounders present a crucial challenge in accurately estimating desired causal effects. To calculate the hazard ratio (HR) in Cox proportional hazard models for time-to-event outcomes, two-stage…

We consider the problem of estimating a dose-response curve. Continuous treatments arise often in practice, e.g. in the form of time spent on an operation, distance traveled to a location or dosage of a drug. Letting $A$ denote a continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H. Kennedy

When assessing the causal effect of a binary exposure using observational data, confounder imbalance across exposure arms must be addressed. Matching methods, including propensity score-based matching, can be used to deconfound the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-01 Ernesto Ulloa-Pérez , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

We propose a model averaging approach, combined with a partition and matching method to estimate the conditional average treatment effects under heteroskedastic error settings. The proposed approach has asymptotic optimality and consistency…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Pengfei Shi , Xinyu Zhang , Wei Zhong

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estimation and inference procedures for multiple…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-08 Michael Lechner

Evaluating the value of new clinical treatment rules based on patient characteristics is important but often complicated by hidden confounding factors in observational studies. Standard methods for estimating the average patient outcome if…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Johannes Hruza , Erin Gabriel , Arvid Sjölander , Samir Bhatt , Michael Sachs

In many scientific studies, it is of interest to determine whether an exposure has a causal effect on an outcome. In observational studies, this is a challenging task due to the presence of confounding variables that affect both the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-07 Ted Westling

This paper studies the identification of causal effects of a continuous treatment using a new difference-in-difference strategy. Our approach allows for endogeneity of the treatment, and employs repeated cross-sections. It requires an…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Xavier D'Haultfoeuille , Stefan Hoderlein , Yuya Sasaki

Consider sensitivity analysis for estimating average treatment effects under unmeasured confounding, assumed to satisfy a marginal sensitivity model. At the population level, we provide new representations for the sharp population bounds…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Zhiqiang Tan

This paper develops a semi-parametric procedure for estimation of unconditional quantile partial effects using quantile regression coefficients. The estimator is based on an identification result showing that, for continuous covariates,…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-02 Javier Alejo , Antonio F. Galvao , Julian Martinez-Iriarte , Gabriel Montes-Rojas
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