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Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Bohan Wu , Eli N. Weinstein , Sohrab Salehi , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

We introduce a comprehensive Bayesian multivariate predictive inference framework. The basis for our framework is a hierarchical Bayesian model, that is a mixture of finite Polya trees corresponding to multiple dyadic partitions of the unit…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-27 Daniel Yekutieli

In this work, we study the positive definiteness (PDness) problem in covariance matrix estimation. For high dimensional data, many regularized estimators are proposed under structural assumptions on the true covariance matrix including…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-16 Young-Geun Choi , Johan Lim , Anindya Roy , Junyong Park

The Bayes linear estimator is derived by minimizing the Bayes risk with respect to the squared loss function. Non-unbiased estimators such as ordinary ridge, typical shrinkage, fractional rank, and restricted least squares estimators, as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-15 Hirai Mukasa

Let $X$ be a random vector with distribution $P_{\theta}$ where $\theta$ is an unknown parameter. When estimating $\theta$ by some estimator $\varphi(X)$ under a loss function $L(\theta,\varphi)$, classical decision theory advocates that…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-23 Dominique Fourdrinier , Martin T. Wells

Estimating a covariance matrix is an important task in applications where the number of variables is larger than the number of observations. Shrinkage approaches for estimating a high-dimensional covariance matrix are often employed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-18 Anestis Touloumis

Shrinkage methods are frequently used to improve the precision of least squares estimators of fixed effects. However, widely used shrinkage estimators guarantee improved precision only under strong distributional assumptions. I develop an…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-09 Soonwoo Kwon

We propose a method called ideal regression for approximating an arbitrary system of polynomial equations by a system of a particular type. Using techniques from approximate computational algebraic geometry, we show how we can solve ideal…

Modern applications require methods that are computationally feasible on large datasets but also preserve statistical efficiency. Frequently, these two concerns are seen as contradictory: approximation methods that enable computation are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-11 Darren Homrighausen , Daniel J. McDonald

Many applications of classification methods not only require high accuracy but also reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty. However, while many current classification frameworks, in particular deep neural networks, achieve high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-28 Jonathan Wenger , Hedvig Kjellström , Rudolph Triebel

Prior distributions for high-dimensional linear regression require specifying a joint distribution for the unobserved regression coefficients, which is inherently difficult. We instead propose a new class of shrinkage priors for linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-09 Yan Dora Zhang , Brian P. Naughton , Howard D. Bondell , Brian J. Reich

We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Junxiong Jia , Jigen Peng , Jinghuai Gao

We develop machinery to design efficiently computable and consistent estimators, achieving estimation error approaching zero as the number of observations grows, when facing an oblivious adversary that may corrupt responses in all but an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Tommaso d'Orsi , Chih-Hung Liu , Rajai Nasser , Gleb Novikov , David Steurer , Stefan Tiegel

In this article, we investigate posterior convergence of nonparametric binary and Poisson regression under possible model misspecification, assuming general stochastic process prior with appropriate properties. Our model setup and objective…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

We consider a commonly studied supervised classification of a synthetic dataset whose labels are generated by feeding a one-layer neural network with random iid inputs. We study the generalization performances of standard classifiers in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-18 Benjamin Aubin , Florent Krzakala , Yue M. Lu , Lenka Zdeborová

Regression trees and their ensemble methods are popular methods for nonparametric regression: they combine strong predictive performance with interpretable estimators. To improve their utility for locally smooth response surfaces, we study…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-13 Sören R. Künzel , Theo F. Saarinen , Edward W. Liu , Jasjeet S. Sekhon

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-23 Dimitris Korobilis , Kenichi Shimizu

This paper investigates and extends the computationally attractive nonparametric random coefficients estimator of Fox, Kim, Ryan, and Bajari (2011). We show that their estimator is a special case of the nonnegative LASSO, explaining its…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-20 Florian Heiss , Stephan Hetzenecker , Maximilian Osterhaus

The horseshoe prior has proven to be a noteworthy alternative for sparse Bayesian estimation, but has previously suffered from two problems. First, there has been no systematic way of specifying a prior for the global shrinkage…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari

For the problem of high-dimensional sparse linear regression, it is known that an $\ell_0$-based estimator can achieve a $1/n$ "fast" rate on the prediction error without any conditions on the design matrix, whereas in absence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-01 Yuchen Zhang , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan