Related papers: Sensitivity estimation of conditional value at ris…
Deep learning algorithms have been widely used to solve linear Kolmogorov partial differential equations~(PDEs) in high dimensions, where the loss function is defined as a mathematical expectation. We propose to use the randomized…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and value-at-risk (VaR) are popular tail-risk measures in finance and insurance industries as well as in highly reliable, safety-critical uncertain environments where often the underlying probability…
This paper addresses risk averse constrained optimization problems where the objective and constraint functions can only be computed by a blackbox subject to unknown uncertainties. To handle mixed aleatory/epistemic uncertainties, the…
The parameter derivative of the expectation value of the energy, $\partial E/\partial p$, is a key ingredient in variational quantum Monte Carlo (VMC) wave function optimization methods. In some cases, a na\"ive Monte Carlo estimate of this…
Generalized cross-validation (GCV) is a widely-used method for estimating the squared out-of-sample prediction risk that employs a scalar degrees of freedom adjustment (in a multiplicative sense) to the squared training error. In this…
We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However,…
We consider a class of semi-parametric dynamic models with strong white noise errors. This class of processes includes the standard Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the nonfundamental structural VAR, the mixed causal-noncausal models, as…
The two popular systemic risk measures CoVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) and CoES (Conditional Expected Shortfall) have recently been receiving growing attention on applications in economics and finance. In this paper, we study the…
Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…
As safety is of paramount importance in robotics, reinforcement learning that reflects safety, called safe RL, has been studied extensively. In safe RL, we aim to find a policy which maximizes the desired return while satisfying the defined…
We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…
This paper examines the precision of estimators of Quantile-Based Risk Measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall, Spectral Risk Measures). It first addresses the question of how to estimate the precision of these estimators, and proposes…
Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…
Solving chance-constrained optimal control problems for systems subject to non-stationary uncertainties is a significant challenge.Conventional robust model predictive control (MPC) often yields excessive conservatism by relying on static…
In this paper we consider Fourier transform techniques to efficiently compute the Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Value-at-Risk of an arbitrary loss random variable, characterized by having a computable generalized characteristic…
In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the…
Monte Carlo methods are widely used for approximating complicated, multidimensional integrals for Bayesian inference. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) is an important class of Monte Carlo methods, which utilizes a population of proposals to…
We review and apply Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques to pricing and risk management (greeks) of representative financial instruments of increasing complexity. We compare QMC vs standard Monte Carlo…
This paper introduces the Lambda extension of the R\'{e}nyi entropic value-at-risk ($\Lambda$-EVaR), a novel family of risk measures that unifies the flexible confidence level structure of the $\Lambda$-framework with the higher-moment…
Array-RQMC has been proposed as a way to effectively apply randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) when simulating a Markov chain over a large number of steps to estimate an expected cost or reward. The method can be very effective when the…