Related papers: Forecasting observables with particle filters: Any…
Pairwise Markov Models (PMMs) extend the wellknown Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Being significantly more general, PMMs enable several types of processing, like Bayesian filtering or smoothing, similar to those used in HMMs. In this paper,…
We combine conditional state density construction with an extension of the Scenario Approach for stochastic Model Predictive Control to nonlinear systems to yield a novel particle-based formulation of stochastic nonlinear output-feedback…
Traditional MCMC algorithms are computationally intensive and do not scale well to large data. In particular, the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm requires passing over the entire dataset to evaluate the likelihood ratio in each…
The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling and inference. With the advent of Big Data, distributed and parallel variants of MCMC methods are attracting increased attention. In this…
The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes for generating samples from Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm is asymptotically exact, flexible and easy to implement.…
For challenging state estimation problems arising in domains like vision and robotics, particle-based representations attractively enable temporal reasoning about multiple posterior modes. Particle smoothers offer the potential for more…
This article discusses a partially adapted particle filter for estimating the likelihood of a nonlinear structural econometric state space models whose state transition density cannot be expressed in closed form. The filter generates the…
The filtering distribution captures the statistics of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. Classical particle filters provably approximate this distribution in quite general settings; however they behave…
Stochastic filtering refers to estimating the probability distribution of the latent stochastic process conditioned on the observed measurements in time. In this paper, we introduce a new class of convergent filters that represent the…
This paper introduces factored conditional filters, new filtering algorithms for simultaneously tracking states and estimating parameters in high-dimensional state spaces. The conditional nature of the algorithms is used to estimate…
While numerous forecasters have been proposed using different network architectures, the Transformer-based models have state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting. However, forecasters based on Transformers are still suffering…
Most multi-target tracking filters assume that one target and its observation follow a Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) model, but the implicit independence assumption of HMC model is invalid in many practical applications, and a Pairwise Markov…
We investigate a new sampling scheme aimed at improving the performance of particle filters whenever (a) there is a significant mismatch between the assumed model dynamics and the actual system, or (b) the posterior probability tends to…
Particle MCMC involves using a particle filter within an MCMC algorithm. For inference of a model which involves an unobserved stochastic process, the standard implementation uses the particle filter to propose new values for the stochastic…
In this paper, we consider a new framework for particle filtering under model uncertainty that operates beyond the scope of Markovian switching systems. Specifically, we develop a novel particle filtering algorithm that applies to general…
In this paper, approximate Linear Minimum Variance (LMV) filters for continuous-discrete state space models are introduced. The filters are obtained by means of a recursive approximation to the predictions for the first two moments of the…
Particle smoothers are widely used algorithms allowing to approximate the smoothing distribution in hidden Markov models. Existing algorithms often suffer from slow computational time or degeneracy. We propose in this paper a way to improve…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, are simulation-based recursive algorithms for the approximation of the a posteriori probability measures generated by state-space dynamical models. At any given time $t$,…
The filtering of a Markov diffusion process on a manifold from counting process observations leads to `large' changes in the conditional distribution upon an observed event, corresponding to a multiplication of the density by the intensity…
The application of neural networks in modeling dynamic systems has become prominent due to their ability to estimate complex nonlinear functions. Despite their effectiveness, neural networks face challenges in long-term predictions, where…