Related papers: A hypothesis test of feasibility for external pilo…
Heavy-tailed metrics are common and often critical to product evaluation in the online world. While we may have samples large enough for Central Limit Theorem to kick in, experimentation is challenging due to the wide confidence interval of…
Reliability analysis is a sub-field of uncertainty quantification that assesses the probability of a system performing as intended under various uncertainties. Traditionally, this analysis relies on deterministic models, where experiments…
Recently, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released draft guidance \citep{FDA2026} signaling a paradigm shift that facilitates the use of Bayesian methodology as the primary analysis and decision framework for drug approval. The…
Policy decisions often depend on evidence generated elsewhere. We take a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to choosing where to experiment to optimize external validity. We frame external validity through a policy lens, developing a…
Hypothesis testing is an important problem with applications in target localization, clinical trials etc. Many active hypothesis testing strategies operate in two phases: an exploration phase and a verification phase. In the exploration…
It is a common practice in randomized clinical trials with the standard survival outcome to follow patients until a prespecified number of events have been observed, a type of trial known as the event-driven trial. The event-driven design…
The fragility index is a clinically motivated metric designed to supplement the $p$ value during hypothesis testing. The measure relies on two pillars: selecting cases to have their outcome modified and modifying the outcomes. The measure…
Combining test statistics from independent trials or experiments is a popular method of meta-analysis. However, there is very limited theoretical understanding of the power of the combined test, especially in high-dimensional models…
Substudies of the Childhood Asthma Management Program [Control. Clin. Trials 20 (1999) 91-120; N. Engl. J. Med. 343 (2000) 1054-1063] seek to identify patient characteristics associated with asthma symptoms and lung function. To determine…
Recruiting patients to participate in clinical trials can be challenging and time-consuming. Usually, participation in a clinical trial is initiated by a healthcare professional and proposed to the patient. Promoting clinical trials…
Credibility theory provides tools to obtain better estimates by combining individual data with sample information. We apply the Credibility theory to a Uniform distribution that is used in testing the reliability of forecasting an interest…
Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…
The last decade's research in artificial intelligence had a significant impact on the advance of autonomous driving. Yet, safety remains a major concern when it comes to deploying such systems in high-risk environments. The objective of…
Estimating externally valid causal effects is a foundational problem in the social and biomedical sciences. Generalizing or transporting causal estimates from an experimental sample to a target population of interest relies on an overlap…
We investigate the probabilistic feasibility of randomized solutions to two distinct classes of uncertain multi-agent optimization programs. We first assume that only the constraints of the program are affected by uncertainty, while the…
Imitation learning has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks in challenging dexterous manipulation settings. As new methods are developed, they must be rigorously evaluated and compared against corresponding baselines…
Quantitatively evaluating and comparing the performance of robotic solutions that are designed to work under a variety of conditions is inherently challenging because they need to be evaluated under numerous precisely repeatable conditions…
Hypothesis testing in the linear regression model is a fundamental statistical problem. We consider linear regression in the high-dimensional regime where the number of parameters exceeds the number of samples ($p> n$). In order to make…
An early phase clinical trial is the first step in evaluating the effects in humans of a potential new anti-disease agent or combination of agents. Usually called "phase I" or "phase I/II" trials, these experiments typically have the…
This paper investigates the robustness of futility analyses in clinical trials when interim analysis population deviates from the target population. We demonstrate how population shifts can distort early stopping decisions and propose…