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Bayesian neural network (BNN) posteriors are often considered impractical for inference, as symmetries fragment them, non-identifiabilities inflate dimensionality, and weight-space priors are seen as meaningless. In this work, we study how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Julius Kobialka , Emanuel Sommer , Chris Kolb , Juntae Kwon , Daniel Dold , David Rügamer

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Weichang Yu , Howard D. Bondell

Probabilistic predictions from neural networks which account for predictive uncertainty during classification is crucial in many real-world and high-impact decision making settings. However, in practice most datasets are trained on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Satya Borgohain , Klaus Ackermann , Ruben Loaiza-Maya

Current approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) exhibit a crucial limitation: they fail to maintain invariance under reparameterization, i.e. BNNs assign different posterior densities to different parametrizations of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Hrittik Roy , Marco Miani , Carl Henrik Ek , Philipp Hennig , Marvin Pförtner , Lukas Tatzel , Søren Hauberg

The formulation of Bayesian inverse problems involves choosing prior distributions; choices that seem equally reasonable may lead to significantly different conclusions. We develop a computational approach to better understand the impact of…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-08 John E. Darges , Alen Alexanderian , Pierre A. Gremaud

While Bayesian methods are praised for their ability to incorporate useful prior knowledge, in practice, convenient priors that allow for computationally cheap or tractable inference are commonly used. In this paper, we investigate the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-14 Willie Neiswanger , Eric Xing

Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations remains a significant challenge in many scientific domains. We propose normalizing flow regression (NFR), a novel offline inference method for approximating posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-17 Chengkun Li , Bobby Huggins , Petrus Mikkola , Luigi Acerbi

Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications, exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and probabilistically coherent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Edoardo M. Airoldi , Thiago Costa , Federico Bassetti , Fabrizio Leisen , Michele Guindani

Modern simulation-based inference techniques use neural networks to solve inverse problems efficiently. One notable strategy is neural posterior estimation (NPE), wherein a neural network parameterizes a distribution to approximate the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-03-06 Alex Kolmus , Justin Janquart , Tomasz Baka , Twan van Laarhoven , Chris Van Den Broeck , Tom Heskes

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Jane Pan , Sudipto Banerjee

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra

We study Bayesian inference in statistical linear inverse problems with Gaussian noise and priors in Hilbert space. We focus our interest on the posterior contraction rate in the small noise limit. Existing results suffer from a certain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-24 Sergios Agapiou , Peter Mathé

Power priors are used for incorporating historical data in Bayesian analyses by taking the likelihood of the historical data raised to the power $\alpha$ as the prior distribution for the model parameters. The power parameter $\alpha$ is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

We study the sample complexity of Bayesian recovery for solving inverse problems with general prior, forward operator and noise distributions. We consider posterior sampling according to an approximate prior $\mathcal{P}$, and establish…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Ben Adcock , Nick Huang

Bayesian inference is used extensively to quantify the uncertainty in an inferred field given the measurement of a related field when the two are linked by a mathematical model. Despite its many applications, Bayesian inference faces…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-31 Dhruv V. Patel , Assad A. Oberai

An empirical Bayes problem has an unknown prior to be estimated from data. The predictive recursion (PR) algorithm provides fast nonparametric estimation of mixing distributions and is ideally suited for empirical Bayes applications. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-19 Ryan Martin

In a given problem, the Bayesian statistical paradigm requires the specification of a prior distribution that quantifies relevant information about the unknowns of main interest external to the data. In cases where little such information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Alexander Terenin , David Draper

Two major bottlenecks to the solution of large-scale Bayesian inverse problems are the scaling of posterior sampling algorithms to high-dimensional parameter spaces and the computational cost of forward model evaluations. Yet incomplete or…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-03 Tiangang Cui , Youssef M. Marzouk , Karen E. Willcox

Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-28 Weichang Yu , Lamiae Azizi , John T. Ormerod

Bayesian priors offer a compact yet general means of incorporating domain knowledge into many learning tasks. The correctness of the Bayesian analysis and inference, however, largely depends on accuracy and correctness of these priors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Mahdi MIlani Fard , Joelle Pineau , Csaba Szepesvari
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