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We review some recent results of quantitative long-time convergence for the law of a killed Markov process conditioned to survival toward a quasi-stationary distribution, and on the analogous question for the particle systems used in…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-26 Bertrand Cloez , Lucas Journel , Pierre Monmarché , Boris Nectoux , Mouad Ramil

A strong quasi-invariance principle and a finite-dimensional integration by parts formula as in the Bismut approach to Malliavin calculus are obtained through a suitable application of Lie's symmetry theory to autonomous stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-12 Francesco C. De Vecchi , Paola Morando , Stefania Ugolini

The long time behavior of an absorbed Markov process is well described by the limiting distribution of the process conditioned to not be killed when it is observed. Our aim is to give an approximation's method of this limit, when the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-05-25 Denis Villemonais

We propose an approach to compute the boundary crossing probabilities for a class of diffusion processes which can be expressed as piecewise monotone (not necessarily one-to-one) functionals of a standard Brownian motion. This class…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Liqun Wang , Klaus Pötzelberger

Kinetic equations model the position-velocity distribution of particles subject to transport and collision effects. Under a diffusive scaling, these combined effects converge to a diffusion equation for the position density in the limit of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-26 Emil Løvbak , Giovanni Samaey

The binomial, the negative binomial, the Poisson, the compound Poisson and the Erlang distribution do all admit integral representations with respect to its (continuous) parameter. We use the Margulis-Russo type formulas for Bernoulli and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-05 Guenter Last , Sergei Zuyev

We derive an integration by parts formula for functionals of determinantal processes on compact sets, completing the arguments of [4]. This is used to show the existence of a configuration-valued diffusion process which is non-colliding and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-30 Laurent Decreusefond , Ian Flint , Nicolas Privault , Giovanni Luca Torrisi

We address the possibility of performing numerical Monte Carlo simulations for the thermodynamics of quantum dissipative systems. Dissipation is considered within the Caldeira-Leggett formulation, which describes the system in the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Luca Capriotti , Alessandro Cuccoli , Andrea Fubini , Valerio Tognetti , Ruggero Vaia

Motivated by entropic optimal transport, time reversal of diffusion processes is revisited. An integration by parts formula is derived for the carr\'e du champ of a Markov process in an abstract space. It leads to a time reversal formula…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-05 Patrick Cattiaux , Giovanni Conforti , Ivan Gentil , Christian Léonard

Computing the marginal likelihood or evidence is one of the core challenges in Bayesian analysis. While there are many established methods for estimating this quantity, they predominantly rely on using a large number of posterior samples…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-26 Eric Chuu , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

The Malliavin integration-by-parts formula is a key ingredient to develop stochastic analysis on the Wiener space. In this article we show that a suitable integration-by-parts formula also characterizes a wide class of Gaussian processes,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-08 Ehsan Azmoodeh , Tommi Sottinen , Ciprian A. Tudor , Lauri Viitasaari

We present the particle method for simulating the solution to the path-dependent McKean-Vlasov equation, in which both the drift and the diffusion coefficients depend on the whole trajectory of the process up to the current time t, as well…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-18 Armand Bernou , Yating Liu

Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times, is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction,…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-11 Matthew M. Graham , Alexandre H. Thiery , Alexandros Beskos

Computation of the marginal likelihood from a simulated posterior distribution is central to Bayesian model selection but is computationally difficult. I argue that the marginal likelihood can be reliably computed from a posterior sample by…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2010-06-24 Martin D. Weinberg

We extend the Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula to non-degenerate jump diffusions and "payoff" functions depending on the process at multiple future times. In the spirit of Fournie et al [13] and Davis and Johansson [9] this can improve Monte…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-02 T. R. Cass , P. K. Friz

In this paper, we obtain a Lamperti type representation for real-valued self-similar Markov processes, killed at their hitting time of zero. Namely, we represent real-valued self-similar Markov processes as time changed multiplicative…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-18 Loïc Chaumont , Henry Pantí , Víctor Rivero

We consider a class of semi-Markov processes (SMP) such that the embedded discrete time Markov chain may be non-homogeneous. The corresponding augmented processes are represented as semi-martingales using stochastic integral equation…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-14 Anindya Goswami , Subhamay Saha , Ravishankar Kapildev Yadav

For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-08 James Hodgson , Adam M. Johansen , Murray Pollock

We consider the task of filtering a dynamic parameter evolving as a diffusion process, given data collected at discrete times from a likelihood which is conjugate to the marginal law of the diffusion, when a generic dual process on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-29 Guillaume Kon Kam King , Andrea Pandolfi , Marco Piretto , Matteo Ruggiero

Assume a L\'evy process $X$ on the time interval $[0,1]$ that is an $L_2$-martingale and let $Y$ be either its stochastic exponential or $X$ itself. We consider Riemann-approximations of certain stochastic integrals driven by $Y$ and relate…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-04 Christel Geiss , Stefan Geiss , Eija Laukkarinen