Related papers: Living on the edge of instability
We propose a statistical mechanics for a general class of stationary and metastable equilibrium states. For this purpose, the Gibbs extremal conditions are slightly modified in order to be applied to a wide class of non-equilibrium states.…
Human activities can play a crucial role in the statistical properties of observables in many complex systems such as social, technological and economic systems. We demonstrate this by looking into the heavy-tailed distributions of…
A continuous approximation for the results of [1] is obtained. In this approximation the energy distribution is represented in the form of the product of the Gibbs factor and superstatistics factor. The mutual weights of the factors are…
In the framework of chaotic scattering we analyze passive tracer transport in finite systems. In particular, we study models with open streamlines and a finite number of recirculation zones. In the non trivial case with a small number of…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…
We study the probability densities of finite-time or \local Lyapunov exponents (LLEs) in low-dimensional chaotic systems. While the multifractal formalism describes how these densities behave in the asymptotic or long-time limit, there are…
For $(X_t)$ a two-sided $\alpha$-stable moving average, this paper studies the conditional distribution of future paths given a piece of observed trajectory when the process is far from its central values. Under this framework, vectors of…
As a counterpart to our previous study of the stationary distribution formed by sums of positions at the Feigenbaum point via the period-doubling cascade in the logistic map (Eur. Phys. J. B 87 32, (2014)), we determine the family of…
Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps…
This work deals with the divisible sandpile model when an initial configuration sampled from a heavy-tailed distribution. Extending results of Levine et al. (2015) and Cipriani et al. (2016) we determine sufficient conditions for…
We study the steady-state low-temperature dynamics of an elastic line in a disordered medium below the depinning threshold. Analogously to the equilibrium dynamics, in the limit T->0, the steady state is dominated by a single configuration…
Stochastic systems characterised by a random driving in a form of the general stable noise are considered. The particle experiences long rests due to the traps the density of which is position-dependent and obeys a power-law form attributed…
We study a class of Markov chains that describe reversible stochastic dynamics of a large class of disordered mean field models at low temperatures. Our main purpose is to give a precise relation between the metastable time scales in the…
The total number of fatalities of an epidemic outbreak is a dramatic but extremely informative quantity. Knowledge of the statistics of this quantity allows the calculation of the mean total number of fatalities conditioned to the fact that…
Many dynamical processes on real world networks display complex temporal patterns as, for instance, a fat-tailed distribution of inter-events times, leading to heterogeneous waiting times between events. In this work, we focus on…
In sustained growth with random dynamics stationary distributions can exist without detailed balance. This suggests thermodynamical behavior in fast growing complex systems. In order to model such phenomena we apply both a discrete and a…
Deterministic and stochastic coupled oscillators with inertia are studied on the rectangular lattice under the shear-velocity boundary condition. Our coupled oscillator model exhibits various nontrivial phenomena and there are various…
We use a Hamiltonian dynamics to discuss the statistical mechanics of long-lasting quasi-stationary states particularly relevant for long-range interacting systems. Despite the presence of an anomalous single-particle velocity distribution,…
We start by reviewing recent probabilistic results on ergodic sums in a large class of (non-uniformly) hyperbolic dynamical systems. Namely, we describe the central limit theorem, the almost-sure convergence to the gaussian and other stable…
Predicting the states of dynamic traffic actors into the future is important for autonomous systems to operate safelyand efficiently. Remarkably, the most critical scenarios aremuch less frequent and more complex than the uncriticalones.…