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We propose a Bayesian inference approach for a class of latent Markov models. These models are widely used for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data, when the interest is in studying the evolution of an individual unobservable…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-05 Francesco Bartolucci , Silvia Pandolfi

Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be useful for decision-making or discovering causal relationships. However, traditional methods often fail in modern applications, which exhibit a larger number of observed variables than data…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-26 Raj Agrawal , Tamara Broderick , Caroline Uhler

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-07 Thomas A. Catanach , Huy D. Vo , Brian Munsky

Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Joshua Daniel Loyal

We consider the problem of inferring the conditional independence graph (CIG) of a high-dimensional stationary multivariate Gaussian time series. In a time series graph, each component of the vector series is represented by distinct node,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-03 Jitendra K Tugnait

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a simulation-based likelihood-free method applicable to both model selection and parameter estimation. ABC parameter estimation requires the ability to forward simulate datasets from a candidate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Louis Raynal , Sixing Chen , Antonietta Mira , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

We address the problem of finding a minimal separator in an Andersson-Madigan-Perlman chain graph (AMP CG), namely, finding a set Z of nodes that separates a given nonadjacent pair of nodes such that no proper subset of Z separates that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Mohammad Ali Javidian , Marco Valtorta , Pooyan Jamshidi

Network inference has been extensively studied in several fields, such as systems biology and social sciences. Learning network topology and internal dynamics is essential to understand mechanisms of complex systems. In particular, sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yasen Wang , Junyang Jin , Jorge Goncalves

Using the linear Gaussian latent variable model as a starting point we relax some of the constraints it imposes by deriving a nonparametric latent feature Gaussian variable model. This model introduces additional discrete latent variables…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Adam Farooq , Yordan P. Raykov , Luc Evers , Max A. Little

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-12 Jonathan Heek , Nal Kalchbrenner

A popular approach to semi-supervised learning proceeds by endowing the input data with a graph structure in order to extract geometric information and incorporate it into a Bayesian framework. We introduce new theory that gives appropriate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-14 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Zachary Kaplan , Thabo Samakhoana , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

An intervention may have an effect on units other than those to which it was administered. This phenomenon is called interference and it usually goes unmodeled. In this paper, we propose to combine Lauritzen-Wermuth-Frydenberg and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-08 Jose M. Peña

Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Yashas Annadani , Jonas Rothfuss , Alexandre Lacoste , Nino Scherrer , Anirudh Goyal , Yoshua Bengio , Stefan Bauer

In many inverse problems, model parameters cannot be precisely determined from observational data. Bayesian inference provides a mechanism for capturing the resulting parameter uncertainty, but typically at a high computational cost. This…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Matthew Parno , Tarek Moselhy , Youssef Marzouk

Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNN) have numerous applications in different graph based learning tasks. Although the techniques obtain impressive results, they often fall short in accounting for the uncertainty associated with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-13 Soumyasundar Pal , Florence Regol , Mark Coates

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-31 Andreas Raue , Clemens Kreutz , Fabian Joachim Theis , Jens Timmer

Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-20 Tim Salimans , Diederik P. Kingma , Max Welling

We propose a very fast approximate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework that is applicable to a large class of sparse Bayesian inference problems, where the computational cost per iteration in several models is of order…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-17 Yves Atchadé , Liwei Wang

We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in an exact Bayesian framework. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with close-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. This task would be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-02 Loïc Schwaller , Stéphane Robin , Michael Stumpf

We consider the problem of learning a conditional Gaussian graphical model in the presence of latent variables. Building on recent advances in this field, we suggest a method that decomposes the parameters of a conditional Markov random…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-07 Benjamin Frot , Luke Jostins , Gil McVean