Related papers: Gradient Boosting Survival Tree with Applications …
Scoring rules are an established way of comparing predictive performances across model classes. In the context of survival analysis, they require adaptation in order to accommodate censoring. This work investigates using scoring rules for…
While there are many well-developed data science methods for classification and regression, there are relatively few methods for working with right-censored data. Here, we present "survival stacking": a method for casting survival analysis…
Fraud detection is to identify, monitor, and prevent potentially fraudulent activities from complex data. The recent development and success in AI, especially machine learning, provides a new data-driven way to deal with fraud. From a…
Since the 1990s, there have been significant advances in the technology space and the e-Commerce area, leading to an exponential increase in demand for cashless payment solutions. This has led to increased demand for credit cards, bringing…
Food security is more prominent on the policy agenda today than it has been in the past, thanks to recent food shortages at both the regional and global levels as well as renewed promises from major donor countries to combat chronic hunger.…
Accurately predicting customer churn using large scale time-series data is a common problem facing many business domains. The creation of model features across various time windows for training and testing can be particularly challenging…
Scaling regression to large datasets is a common problem in many application areas. We propose a two step approach to scaling regression to large datasets. Using a regression tree (CART) to segment the large dataset constitutes the first…
Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free marginal coverage, yet split…
Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs) are dominant machine learning algorithms for modeling discrete or tabular data. Unlike neural networks with millions of trainable parameters, GBDTs optimize loss function in an additive manner and…
Bootstrap aggregating (Bagging) and boosting are two popular ensemble learning approaches, which combine multiple base learners to generate a composite model for more accurate and more reliable performance. They have been widely used in…
Credit scoring models based on accepted applications may be biased and their consequences can have a statistical and economic impact. Reject inference is the process of attempting to infer the creditworthiness status of the rejected…
Gradient boosted decision trees are some of the most popular algorithms in applied machine learning. They are a flexible and powerful tool that can robustly fit to any tabular dataset in a scalable and computationally efficient way. One of…
The use of credit cards has recently increased, creating an essential need for credit card assessment methods to minimize potential risks. This study investigates the utilization of machine learning (ML) models for credit card default…
This paper extends recent work on boosting random forests to model non-Gaussian responses. Given an exponential family $\mathbb{E}[Y|X] = g^{-1}(f(X))$ our goal is to obtain an estimate for $f$. We start with an MLE-type estimate in the…
Decision trees are important both as interpretable models amenable to high-stakes decision-making, and as building blocks of ensemble methods such as random forests and gradient boosting. Their statistical properties, however, are not well…
The credit scoring risk management is a fast growing field due to consumer's credit requests. Credit requests, of new and existing customers, are often evaluated by classical discrimination rules based on customers information. However,…
Survival analysis is complicated by censored data, high-dimensional features, and non-linear interactions. Classical models offer interpretability and superior calibration but are restricted to linear or predefined functional forms, while…
Tree-based models are increasingly popular due to their ability to identify complex relationships that are beyond the scope of parametric models. Survival tree methods adapt these models to allow for the analysis of censored outcomes, which…
Stochastic learning to rank (LTR) is a recent branch in the LTR field that concerns the optimization of probabilistic ranking models. Their probabilistic behavior enables certain ranking qualities that are impossible with deterministic…
We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…