Related papers: Viterbi Extraction tutorial with Hidden Markov Too…

Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…

Time series forecasting is a critical and challenging task in practical application. Recent advancements in pre-trained foundation models for time series forecasting have gained significant interest. However, current methods often overlook…

Various probabilistic time series forecasting models have sprung up and shown remarkably good performance. However, the choice of model highly relies on the characteristics of the input time series and the fixed distribution that the model…

In this work, we extend the idea of Quantum Markov chains [S. Gudder. Quantum Markov chains. J. Math. Phys., 49(7), 2008] in order to propose Quantum Hidden Markov Models (QHMMs). For that, we use the notions of Transition Operation…

Two major tasks in applications of hidden Markov models are to (i) compute distributions of summary statistics of the hidden state sequence, and (ii) decode the hidden state sequence. We describe finite Markov chain imbedding (FMCI) and…

We present an efficient exact algorithm for estimating state sequences from outputs (or observations) in imprecise hidden Markov models (iHMM), where both the uncertainty linking one state to the next, and that linking a state to its…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are popular models to identify a finite number of latent states from sequential data. However, fitting them to large data sets can be computationally demanding because most likelihood maximization techniques…

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a widely-used statistical model for handling sequential data. However, the presence of missing observations in real-world datasets often complicates the application of the model. The EM algorithm and Gibbs…

Hidden Markov Processes (HMP) is one of the basic tools of the modern probabilistic modeling. The characterization of their entropy remains however an open problem. Here the entropy of HMP is calculated via the cycle expansion of the…

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models…

Simultaneous machine translation (SiMT) outputs the target sequence while receiving the source sequence, and hence learning when to start translating each target token is the core challenge for SiMT task. However, it is non-trivial to learn…

The stock market presents a challenging environment for accurately predicting future stock prices due to its intricate and ever-changing nature. However, the utilization of advanced methodologies can significantly enhance the precision of…

We propose the segmented iHMM (siHMM), a hierarchical infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) that supports a simple, efficient inference scheme. The siHMM is well suited to segmentation problems, where the goal is to identify points at which a…

This paper presents a new and flexible prognostics framework based on a higher order hidden semi-Markov model (HOHSMM) for systems or components with unobservable health states and complex transition dynamics. The HOHSMM extends the basic…

Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been widely used by scientists to model stochastic systems: the underlying process is a discrete Markov chain and the observations are noisy realizations of the underlying process. Determining the number of…

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a fundamental tool for sequence modeling that cleanly separates the hidden state from the emission structure. However, this separation makes it difficult to fit HMMs to large datasets in modern NLP, and they…

There is an increase in interest to model driving maneuver patterns via the automatic unsupervised clustering of naturalistic sequential kinematic driving data. The patterns learned are often used in transportation research areas such as…

Standard practice in Hidden Markov Model (HMM) selection favors the candidate with the highest full-sequence likelihood, although this is equivalent to making a decision based on a single realization. We introduce a \emph{fragment-based}…

Working on the daily closing prices and logreturns, in this paper we deal with the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to forecast the price of the EUR/USD Futures. The aim of our work is to understand how the HMMs describe different…

We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…