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This paper introduces a novel uncertainty quantification framework for regression models where the response takes values in a separable metric space, and the predictors are in a Euclidean space. The proposed algorithms can efficiently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-09 Gábor Lugosi , Marcos Matabuena

We present a general framework for uncertainty quantification that is a mosaic of interconnected models. We define global first and second order structural and correlative sensitivity analyses for random counting measures acting on risk…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-05 Caleb Deen Bastian , Herschel Rabitz

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to represent and quantify model-form uncertainties in the reduced-order modeling of complex systems using operator inference techniques. Such uncertainties can arise in the selection of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-08 Jin Yi Yong , Rudy Geelen , Johann Guilleminot

In this paper, we present an analytical study of the relationship between the statistical distribution of a physical parameter and the uncertainties in the physical quantities used to determine it through indirect measurement. We…

Optics · Physics 2023-05-17 Esteban Marulanda , Edgar Rueda

Despite the remarkable success of sampling-based generative models such as flow matching, they can still produce samples of inconsistent or degraded quality. To assess sample reliability and generate higher-quality outputs, we propose…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Juyeop Han , Lukas Lao Beyer , Sertac Karaman

Parameter estimation via unbinned maximum likelihood fits is central for many analyses performed in high energy physics. Unbinned maximum likelihood fits using event weights, for example to statistically subtract background contributions…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-05-09 Christoph Langenbruch

The problem of identifying regions of spatially interesting, different or adversarial behavior is inherent to many practical applications involving distributed multisensor systems. In this work, we develop a general framework stemming from…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-14 Martin Gölz , Abdelhak M. Zoubir , Visa Koivunen

Functional data analysis is proved to be useful in many scientific applications. The physical process is observed as curves and often there are several curves observed due to multiple subjects, providing the replicates in statistical sense.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-30 Tapabrata Maiti , Abolfazl Safikhani , Ping-Shou Zhong

Accurate overland runoff and infiltration predictions are critical for effective water resources management, in particular for urban flood management. However, the inherent uncertainty in rainfall patterns, soil properties, and initial…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-09 Mohamad H. Kazma , Ahmad F. Taha

The analysis of continuously spatially varying processes usually considers two sources of variation, namely, the large-scale variation collected by the trend of the process, and the small-scale variation. Parametric trend models on latitude…

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ethan YoungIn Shin , Baris Kale , Michael F. Howland

In Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) studies composed of the coupling of different simulations, the uncertainty in one stage may be propagated to the following stage and affect the accuracy of the prediction. In this paper, a framework for…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-10-29 F. -J. Granados-Ortiz , J. Ortega-Casanova , C. -H. Lai

In hydrology, modeling streamflow remains a challenging task due to the limited availability of basin characteristics information such as soil geology and geomorphology. These characteristics may be noisy due to measurement errors or may be…

Estimation of unsteady flow fields around flight vehicles may improve flow interactions and lead to enhanced vehicle performance. Although flow-field representations can be very high-dimensional, their dynamics can have low-order…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-03-23 John Graff , Albert Medina , Francis Lagor

Indirect measurement can be used to read out the outcome of a quantum system without resorting to a straightforward approach, and it is the foundation of the measurement uncertainty relations that explain the incompatibility of conjugate…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-08-09 Ryo Mihashi , Yoshihiko Hasegawa

The present paper aims at applying uncertainty quantification methodologies to process simulations of powder bed fusion of metal. In particular, for a part-scale thermomechanical model of an Inconel 625 super-alloy beam, we study the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Mihaela Chiappetta , Chiara Piazzola , Massimo Carraturo , Lorenzo Tamellini , Alessandro Reali , Ferdinando Auricchio

Statistical learning algorithms provide a generally-applicable framework to sidestep time-consuming experiments, or accurate physics-based modeling, but they introduce a further source of error on top of the intrinsic limitations of the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-05-17 Matthias Kellner , Michele Ceriotti

Evaluating structural uncertainties associated with seismic imaging and target horizons can be of critical importance for decision-making related to oil and gas exploration and production. An important breakthrough for industrial…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-07-28 Jérémie Messud , Patrice Guillaume , Gilles Lambaré

The study of complex systems is often based on computationally intensive, high-fidelity, simulations. To build confidence in the prediction accuracy of such simulations, the impact of uncertainties in model inputs on the quantities of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-01-19 Lluis Jofre , Gianluca Geraci , Hillary Fairbanks , Alireza Doostan , Gianluca Iaccarino

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-09-16 Robert Sisneros , Tushar M. Athawale , David Pugmire , Kenneth Moreland