Related papers: An instantaneous market volatility estimation
The measures of roughness of the volatility in the litterature are based on the realized volatility of high frequency data. Some authors show that this leads to a biased estimate, and does not necessarily indicate roughness of the…
Guyon and Lekeufack recently proposed a path-dependent volatility model and documented its excellent performance in fitting market data and capturing stylized facts. The instantaneous volatility is modeled as a linear combination of two…
We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized…
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility…
Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…
We propose new nonparametric estimators of the integrated volatility of an It\^{o} semimartingale observed at discrete times on a fixed time interval with mesh of the observation grid shrinking to zero. The proposed estimators achieve the…
For quantitative trading risk management purposes, we present a novel idea: the realized local volatility surface. Concisely, it stands for the conditional expected volatility when sudden market behaviors of the underlying occur. One is…
In this work, we identify the most general measure of arbitrage for any market model governed by It\^o processes. We show that our arbitrage measure is invariant under changes of num\'{e}raire and equivalent probability. Moreover, such…
We propose a general interpretation for long-range correlation effects in the activity and volatility of financial markets. This interpretation is based on the fact that the choice between `active' and `inactive' strategies is subordinated…
High-frequency data observed on the prices of financial assets are commonly modeled by diffusion processes with micro-structure noise, and realized volatility-based methods are often used to estimate integrated volatility. For problems…
The existing publications demonstrate that the limit order book data is useful in predicting short-term volatility in stock markets. Since stocks are not independent, changes on one stock can also impact other related stocks. In this paper,…
In an era when derivatives is getting popular, risk management has gradually become the core content of modern finance. In order to study how to accurately estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index, after introducing the theoretical…
We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the…
In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…
This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model, which allows for dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties…
It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…
Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of most economic time-series, which causes standard correlation estimators to be inconsistent. The quadrant correlation estimator is consistent but very inefficient. We propose a novel…
Grasping the historical volatility of stock market indices and accurately estimating are two of the major focuses of those involved in the financial securities industry and derivative instruments pricing. This paper presents the results of…
Black-Scholes implied volatility is a quantile. The insight follows from the normalized option price being a probability on the variance scale, with the inverse Gaussian distribution providing the link. It enables analytically exact and…
We propose a pairs trading model that incorporates a time-varying volatility of the Constant Elasticity of Variance type. Our approach is based on stochastic control techniques; given a fixed time horizon and a portfolio of two…