Related papers: Universal precursor seismicity pattern before lock…

Of particular interest is the detection of precursors of an impending rupture. Theoretical, numerical studies along with laboratory experiments indicate that precursory signs of an impending failure are the sudden drop of fractal dimension…

I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…

We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in…

According to the presented work, VLF/LF electromagnetic emissions might be declared as the main precursor of earthquakes since based on these very emissions, it might predict ($M\ge 5$) inland earthquakes. As for ULF radiations, it governs…

We propose a method to search for signs of causal structure in spatiotemporal data making minimal a priori assumptions about the underlying dynamics. To this end, we generalize the elementary concept of recurrence for a point process in…

In line of the intermediate-term monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the world largest earthquakes the seismic dynamics of the Earth's lithosphere is analysed as a single whole, which is the ultimate scale of the complex…

We present an analysis of the time behavior of the $S\&P500$ (Standard and Poors) New York stock exchange index before and after the October 1987 market crash and identify precursory patterns as well as aftershock signatures and…

We present a novel approach for resolving modes of rupture directivity in large populations of earthquakes. A seismic spectral decomposition technique is used to first produce relative measurements of radiated energy for earthquakes in a…

EM emissions in a wide frequency spectrum ranging from kHz to MHz are produced by opening cracks, which can be considered as precursors of general fracture. An important feature, observed on both laboratory and geophysical scale, is that…

Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for investigating the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, seismicity patterns have complicated characteristics due to heterogeneous geology and stresses, for which…

Predicting the occurrence of landslides is important to prevent or reduce loss of lives and property. The stability of rock slopes is often dominated by one or more locked segments along a potential slip surface; these segments have…

Machine learning is becoming increasingly important in scientific and technological progress, due to its ability to create models that describe complex data and generalize well. The wealth of publicly-available seismic data nowadays…

Large continental earthquakes activate multiple faults in a complex fault system, dynamically inducing co-seismic damage around them. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake in the northern South Island of New Zealand has been reported as one…

We investigate numerically and theoretically the precursory intermittent activity characterizing the preliminary phase of damage accumulation prior to failure of quasi-brittle solids. We use a minimal but thermodynamically consistent model…

Earthquake phenomenology exhibits a number of power law distributions including the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics and the Omori law for aftershock decay rates. In search for a basic model that renders correct predictions on…

Forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent complexity and variability of volcanic processes. A key source of uncertainty arises from the sporadic nature of volcanic unrest, which is often characterised…

Short and long range interactions between earthquakes are attracting increasing interest. Scale invariant properties of seismicity in time, space and energy argue for the presence of complex triggering mechanisms where, like a cascade…

We examine the precursory behavior of geoelectric signals before large earthquakes by means of an algorithm including an alarm-based model and binary classification. This algorithm, introduced originally by Chen and Chen [Nat. Hazards., 84,…

Statistical properties of earthquakes are studied both by the analysis of real earthquake catalog of Japan and by numerical computer simulations of the spring-block model in both one and two dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the…

This paper addresses short term forecast of ultra short AR(1) sequences (4 to 6 terms only) with a single structural break at an unknown time and of unknown sign and magnitude. As prediction of autoregressive processes requires estimated…