Related papers: Forecasting age distribution of death counts: An a…

The distribution of deaths by cause provides crucial information for public health planning, response, and evaluation. About 60% of deaths globally are not registered or given a cause, limiting our ability to understand disease…

The concept of random deaths in a computational model for population dynamics is critically examined. We claim that it is just an artifact, albeit useful, of computational models to limit the size of the populations and has no biological…

Age dependent population dynamics are frequently modeled with generalizations of the classic McKendrick-von Foerster equation. These are deterministic systems, and a stochastic generalization was recently reported in [1,2]. Here we develop…

Compositional data and multivariate count data with known totals are challenging to analyse due to the non-negativity and sum-to-one constraints on the sample space. It is often the case that many of the compositional components are highly…

Tontines were once a popular type of mortality-linked investment pool. They promised enormous rewards to the last survivors at the expense of those died early. And, while this design appealed to the gambling instinc}, it is a suboptimal way…

Worldwide, many millions of people die suddenly and unexpectedly each year, either with or without a prior history of cardiovascular disease. Such events are sparse (once in a lifetime), many victims will not have had prior investigations…

Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…

The South Australia region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) displays some of the highest levels of price volatility observed in modern electricity markets. This paper outlines an approach to probabilistic forecasting…

Geographic patterns in stroke mortality have been studied as far back as the 1960s, when a region of the southeastern United States became known as the "stroke belt" due to its unusually high rates of stroke mortality. While stroke…

We use life annuity prices to extract information about human longevity using a framework that links the term structure of mortality and interest rates. We invert the model and perform nonlinear least squares to obtain implied longevity…

The limitations resulting from the dichtomisation of continuous outcomes have been extensively described. But the need to present results based on binary outcomes in particular in health science remains. Alternatives based on the…

We introduce some new generalized stochastic orderings (in the spirit of relative ageing) which compare probability distributions with the exponential distribution. These orderings are useful to understand the phenomenon of positive ageing…

The determination of the shapes of mortality curves, the estimation and projection of mortality patterns over time, and the investigation of differences in mortality patterns across different small underdeveloped populations have received…

In this paper, we introduce a general numerical method to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of multi-group, age-structured, population models with a finite age span. To provide complete flexibility in the definition of…

Many insurance products and pension plans provide benefits which are related to couples, and thus under influence of the survival status of two lives. Some studies show the future lifetime of couples is correlated. Three reasons are…

In this paper we consider a variety of procedures for numerical statistical inference in the family of univariate and multivariate stable distributions. In connection with univariate distributions (i) we provide approximations by finite…

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

This paper introduces a recurrent neural network approach for predicting user lifetime value in Software as a Service (SaaS) applications. The approach accounts for three connected time dimensions. These dimensions are the user cohort (the…

Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and wellbeing. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often…

This paper aims to develop practical applications of the model for the highly technical measure-valued populations developed by the authors in \cite{FanEtal20}. We consider the problem of estimation of parameters in the general age and…