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Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…
For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular lattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host population. It is well known that the contact network, described in this setting by a…
In temperate climates, mortality is seasonal with a winter-dominant pattern, due in part to pneumonia and influenza. Cardiac causes, which are the leading cause of death in the United States, are also winter-seasonal although it is not…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…
In this paper, we carry out a computational study using the spectral decomposition of the fluctuations of a two-pathogen epidemic model around its deterministic attractor, i.e., steady state or limit cycle, to examine the role of partial…
Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains,…
The dynamics of strongly immunizing childhood infections is still not well understood. Although reports of successful modeling of several incidence data records can be found in the literature, the key determinants of the observed temporal…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…
Conventional wisdom holds that influenza A and B are such genetically dissimilar viruses that infection with one cannot confer cross-immunity to the other. However, our examination of the records of the past 25 influenza seasons in the U.S.…
Traditional biomedical approaches treat diseases in isolation, but the importance of synergistic disease interactions is now recognized. As a first step we present and analyze a simple coinfection model for two diseases affecting…
The evolutionary dynamics of human Influenza A virus presents a challenging theoretical problem. An extremely high mutation rate allows the virus to escape, at each epidemic season, the host immune protection elicited by previous…
SIRS models capture transmission dynamics of infectious diseases for which immunity is not lifelong. Extending these models by a W compartment for individuals with waning immunity, the boosting of the immune system upon repeated exposure…
It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of…
Despite high vaccine coverage, pertussis has re-emerged as a public health concern in many countries. One hypothesis posed for re-emergence is the waning of immunity. In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be…
Seasonal influenza is a significant public health concern in the United States and globally. While influenza vaccines are the single most effective intervention to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality, there is considerable debate…
We consider a model for an influenza-like disease, in which, between seasons, the virus makes a random genetic drift $\delta$, (reducing immunity by the factor $\delta$) and obtains a new random transmissibility $\tau$ (closely related to…
Interactions between COVID-19 and other pathogens may change their dynamics. Specifically, this may hinder the modelling of empirical data when the symptoms of both infections are hard to distinguish. We introduce a model coupling the…