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We propose an autoregressive framework for modelling dynamic networks with dependent edges. It encompasses models that accommodate, for example, transitivity, degree heterogenenity, and other stylized features often observed in real network…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Jinyuan Chang , Qin Fang , Eric D. Kolaczyk , Peter W. MacDonald , Qiwei Yao

This article introduces a general class of heavy-tailed autoregressions for modeling integer-valued time series with outliers. The proposed specification is based on a heavy-tailed mixture of negative binomial distributions that features an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-09 Paolo Gorgi

We study ergodic properties of some Markov chains models in random environments when the random Markov kernels that define the dynamic satisfy some usual drift and small set conditions but with random coefficients. In particular, we adapt a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-16 Lionel Truquet

Many economic models feature moment conditions that involve latent variables. When the latent variables are individual fixed effects in an auxiliary panel data regression, we construct orthogonal moments that eliminate first-order bias…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-10 Jiaqi Huang

Random population dynamics with catastrophes (events pertaining to possible elimination of a large portion of the population) has a long history in the mathematical literature. In this paper we study an ergodic model for random population…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-13 Iddo Ben-Ari , Alexander Roitershtein , Rinaldo B. Schinazi

We study the convergence of stochastic fixed point iterations in the consistent case (in the sense of Butnariu and Fl{\aa}m (1995)) in several different settings, under decreasingly restrictive regularity assumptions of the fixed point…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-26 Neal Hermer , D. Russell Luke , Anja Sturm

The use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to represent conditional independence relations among random variables has proved fruitful in a variety of ways. Recursive structural equation models are one kind of DAG model. However,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Peter L. Spirtes

Decisions to pursue higher education are not fully explained by economic incentives, with social influence and peer effects playing a crucial, yet dynamically understudied, role. This paper develops a theoretical non-linear dynamics model…

General Economics · Economics 2026-04-06 Andrea Caravaggio , Marco Catola , Silvia Leoni

Nonlinear time series models with exogenous regressors are essential in econometrics, queuing theory, and machine learning, though their statistical analysis remains incomplete. Key results, such as the law of large numbers and the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-24 Attila Lovas

This paper studies a regression model with functional dependent and explanatory variables, both of which exhibit nonstationary dynamics. The model assumes that the nonstationary stochastic trends of the dependent variable are explained by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Kyungsik Nam , Won-Ki Seo

We introduce a class of discrete random walk model driven by global memory effects. At any time the right-left transitions depend on the whole previous history of the walker, being defined by an urn-like memory mechanism. The characteristic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-12-28 Adrian A. Budini

We present new estimators for the statistical analysis of the dependence of the mean gap time length between consecutive recurrent events, on a set of explanatory random variables and in the presence of right censoring. The dependence is…

Applications · Statistics 2021-09-10 Ioana Schiopu-Kratina , Hai Yan Liu , Mayer Alvo , Pierre-Jerome Bergeron

The classical condition on the existence of uniformly exponentially consistent tests for testing the true density against the complement of its arbitrary neighborhood has been widely adopted in study of asymptotics of Bayesian nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-01 Yang Xing

In this paper we extend to a generic class of piecewise smooth dynamical systems a fundamental tool for the analysis of convergence of smooth dynamical systems: contraction theory. We focus on switched systems satisfying Caratheodory…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-10-06 Mario di Bernardo , Davide Liuzza , Giovanni Russo

Motivated by queueing applications, we study various reflected autoregressive processes with dependencies. Amongst others, we study cases where the interarrival and service times are proportionally dependent with additive and/or subtracting…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-03 Ioannis Dimitriou , Dieter Fiems

We develop a framework for quantitative convergence analysis of Picard iterations of expansive set-valued fixed point mappings. There are two key components of the analysis. The first is a natural generalization of single-valued averaged…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-09-24 D. Russell Luke , Nguyen H. Thao , Matthew K. Tam

We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter H. Baxendale

Riesz space (non-pointwise) generalizations for iterative processes are given for the concepts of recurrence, first recurrence and conditional ergodicity. Riesz space conditional versions of the Poincar\'{e} Recurrence Theorem and the Kac…

Iterative imputation, in which variables are imputed one at a time each given a model predicting from all the others, is a popular technique that can be convenient and flexible, as it replaces a potentially difficult multivariate modeling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-04-04 Jingchen Liu , Andrew Gelman , Jennifer Hill , Yu-Sung Su

We introduce a new class of conditional autoregressive models for spatially dependent functional data, formulated through conditional means given neighboring functional observations and characterized by a covariance operator and a spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 Sooran Kim